IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp10806.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results

Author

Listed:
  • Clemens, Michael A.

    (Center for Global Development)

  • Hunt, Jennifer

    (Rutgers University)

Abstract

An influential strand of research has tested for the effects of immigration on natives' wages and employment using exogenous refugee supply shocks as natural experiments. Several studies have reached conflicting conclusions about the effects of noted refugee waves such as the Mariel Boatlift in Miami and post-Soviet refugees to Israel. We show that conflicting findings on the effects of the Mariel Boatlift can be explained by a sudden change in the race composition of the Current Population Survey extracts in 1980, specific to Miami but unrelated to the Boatlift. We also show that conflicting findings on the labor-market effects of other important refugee waves can be produced by spurious correlation between the instrument and the endogenous variable introduced by applying a common divisor to both. As a whole, the evidence from refugee waves reinforces the existing consensus that the impact of immigration on average native-born workers is small, and fails to substantiate claims of large detrimental impacts on workers with less than high school.

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens, Michael A. & Hunt, Jennifer, 2017. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," IZA Discussion Papers 10806, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp10806.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Magee, Lonnie, 1990. "Transforming the Dependent Variable in Regression Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 315-339, May.
    2. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
    3. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    4. Rachel M. Friedberg, 2001. "The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1373-1408.
    5. David Card, 1990. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 43(2), pages 245-257, January.
    6. Jennifer Hunt, 1992. "The Impact of the 1962 Repatriates from Algeria on the French Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 45(3), pages 556-572, April.
    7. Angrist, Joshua D. & Krueger, Alan B., 1999. "Empirical strategies in labor economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1277-1366, Elsevier.
    8. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. David Card, 2009. "Immigration and Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Michael A. Clemens, 2017. "The Meaning Of Failed Replications: A Review And Proposal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 326-342, February.
    11. Joseph G. Altonji & Paul J. Devereux, 1999. "The Extent and Consequences of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity," NBER Working Papers 7236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. George J. Borjas & Joan Monras, 2017. "The labour market consequences of refugee supply shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 361-413.
    13. Richard A. Kronmal, 1993. "Spurious Correlation and the Fallacy of the Ratio Standard Revisited," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(3), pages 379-392, May.
    14. Walter S. McManus, 1990. "Labor Market Effects of Language Enclaves: Hispanic Men in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(2), pages 228-252.
    15. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1970_25n2_0391 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. George J. Borjas, 1987. "Immigrants, Minorities, and Labor Market Competition," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 40(3), pages 382-392, April.
    17. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    18. Joshua D. Angrist & Adriana D. Kugler, 2003. "Protective or counter-productive? labour market institutions and the effect of immigration on eu natives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(488), pages 302-331, June.
    19. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Barry T. Hirsch & Edward J. Schumacher, 2004. "Match Bias in Wage Gap Estimates Due to Earnings Imputation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(3), pages 689-722, July.
    21. Samuel Bazzi & Michael A. Clemens, 2013. "Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 152-186, April.
    22. Cahuc, Pierre & Carcillo, Stéphane & Zylberberg, André, 2014. "Labor Economics, second edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262027704.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lewis, Ethan & Peri, Giovanni, 2015. "Immigration and the Economy of Cities and Regions," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 625-685, Elsevier.
    2. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2021. "Answering causal questions using observational data," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2021-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    3. Edo, Anthony & Rapoport, Hillel, 2019. "Minimum wages and the labor market effects of immigration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Dogu Tan Araci & Murat Demirci & Murat Guray Kirdar, 2021. "Development Level of Hosting Areas and the Impact of Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2102, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Chletsos Michael & Roupakias Stelios, 2019. "Do Immigrants Compete with Natives in the Greek Labour Market? Evidence from the Skill-Cell Approach before and during the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-30, April.
    6. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & William F. Lincoln, 2015. "Skilled Immigration and the Employment Structures of US Firms," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(S1), pages 147-186.
    7. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Moreno-Galbis, Eva & Tritah, Ahmed, 2016. "The effects of immigration in frictional labor markets: Theory and empirical evidence from EU countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-98.
    9. ., 2012. "Migration impact assessment: a state of the art," Chapters, in: Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot & Mediha Sahin (ed.), Migration Impact Assessment, chapter 1, pages 3-62, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr, 2018. "The Effects of Immigration in Developed Countries: Insights from Recent Economic Research," CEPII Policy Brief 2018-22, CEPII research center.
    11. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    12. Lara Bohnet & Susana Peralta & Joao Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "Cousins from overseas: the labour market impact of half a million Portuguese repatriates," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2114, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    13. Randall Akee & Maggie R. Jones, 2019. "Immigrants’ Earnings Growth and Return Migration from the U.S.: Examining their Determinants using Linked Survey and Administrative Data," NBER Working Papers 25639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christoph Basten & Michael Siegenthaler, 2013. "Do immigrants take or create residents' jobs?," KOF Working papers 13-335, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    15. Labanca, Claudio, 2020. "The effects of a temporary migration shock: Evidence from the Arab Spring migration through Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Ege Aksu & Refik Erzan & Murat Guray Kirdar, 2018. "The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1815, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    17. Siegenthaler, Michael & Basten, Christoph, 2013. "Do immigrants take or create residents jobs? Quasi-experimental evidence from Switzerland," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79780, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Nijkamp, P. & Poot, H.J., 2012. "Migration impact assessment: A state of the art," Serie Research Memoranda 0009, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    19. Ege Aksu & Refik Erzan & Murat Guray Kirdar, 2018. "The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1815, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    20. Francesco D’Amuri & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 8, pages 223-243, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; wages; unemployment; refugee; asylum; crisis; violence; conflict; labor; integration; mariel boatlift; Miami; Israel; France; Algeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.