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The Crime Effect of Refugees

Author

Listed:
  • Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel
  • Naci H. Mocan
  • Semih Tumen
  • Belgi Turan

Abstract

We analyze the impact on crime of 3.7 million refugees who entered and stayed in Turkey as a result of the civil war in Syria. Using a novel administrative data source on the flow of offense records to prosecutors’ offices in 81 provinces of the country each year, and utilizing the staggered movement of refugees across provinces over time, we estimate instrumental variables models that address potential endogeneity of the number of refugees and their location, and find that an increase in the number of refugees leads to more crime. We estimate that the influx of refugees between 2012 and 2016 generated additional 75,000 to 150,000 crimes per year, although it is not possible to identify the distribution of these crimes between refugees and natives. Additional analyses reveal that low-educated native population has a separate, but smaller, effect on crime. We also highlight the pitfalls of employing incorrect empirical procedures and using poor proxies of criminal activity which produce the wrong inference about the refugee-crime relationship. Our results underline the need to quickly strengthen the social safety systems, to take actions to dampen the impact on the labor market, and to provide support to the criminal justice system in order to mitigate the repercussions of massive influx of individuals into a country, and to counter the social and political backlash that typically emerges in the wake of such large-scale population movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Naci H. Mocan & Semih Tumen & Belgi Turan, 2022. "The Crime Effect of Refugees," NBER Working Papers 30070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30070
    Note: DEV EH LE LS PE POL
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    Cited by:

    1. Lange, Martin & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2024. "Do refugees impact crime? Causal evidence from large-scale refugee immigration to Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Cansu OYMAK & Jean-François MAYSTADT, 2024. "Can refugees improve native children's health?: evidence from Turkey," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(3), pages 521-551, September.
    3. Palsson, Craig, 2023. "The forces of path dependence: Haiti's refugee camps, 1937–2009," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Bilge, Nur & Naiditch, Claire, 2025. "The Native Mobility Response to Rising Refugees and Migrants in Turkey," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1658, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "The effects of exposure to refugees on crime: Evidence from the Greek islands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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