The Native Mobility Response to Rising Refugees and Migrants in Turkey

This paper investigates the impact of international migration on internal mobility patterns in Turkey between 2014 and 2022. Using rich bilateral migration flow data, we explore heterogeneity by migrant type and nationality. Our findings indicate that an increase in the share of foreigners in a province is associated with higher out-migration of Turkish nationals. In contrast, a greater share of refugees tends to reduce native internal migration, highlighting distinct effects based on migrant status. We also find substantial variation by migrant nationality, suggesting once more that the characteristics of migrants shape their impact on native mobility. Further, we uncover asymmetric effects: the effect of foreign presence is more pronounced in provinces with initially low levels of internal mobility. Finally, by incorporating subjective measures of satisfaction with public services, we show that both access to and satisfaction with local services significantly influence internal migration decisions.