IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02650271.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Housing prices and inter-urban migration

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Plantinga

    (OSU - Oregon State University)

  • Cécile Détang-Dessendre

    (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement)

  • Gary Hunt

    (University of Maine)

  • Virginie Piguet

    (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement)

Abstract

Economic theory predicts that individual migration decisions for working-age adults will depend on area differences in wages, housing costs, and amenities. While the importance of wages and amenities is well-established from previous empirical studies, evidence regarding housing costs is far less conclusive. We develop and test a new method for representing housing prices in migration analyses. We first provide conditions under which utility-maximizing housing costs can be specified as a function of individual characteristics, similar to a Mincerian wage equation. Using large samples of individuals from the 2000 PUMS, we estimate the relationship between housing costs and individual attributes for each of 291 metropolitan areas in the U.S. Our approach accounts for rental and ownership decisions, the costs of rental and owned properties, and the costs of holding housing capital. We test our housing cost measure using observations of point-to-point migration decisions for a large sample of college-educated males. Our migration model includes additional controls for the wage each individual expects to earn in each area as well as a large set of area amenities. Our key finding is that our proposed housing cost measure yields the expected results (higher housing prices reduce the probability that an area is selected). We re-estimate the model using three alternative metropolitan area measures of housing costs: median house price, average apartment rent, and average urban land rent. These measures consistently produce counterintuitive positive effects of housing costs on area choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Plantinga & Cécile Détang-Dessendre & Gary Hunt & Virginie Piguet, 2013. "Housing prices and inter-urban migration," Post-Print hal-02650271, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02650271
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2012.07.009
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02650271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cécile Détang-Dessendre & Florence Goffette-Nagot & Virginie Piguet, 2004. "Life-cycle position and migration to urban and rural areas: estimations of a mixed logit model on French data," Working Papers 0403, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    2. David J. Lewis & Gary L. Hunt & DAndrew J. Plantinga, 2002. "Public Conservation Land and Employment Growth in the Northern Forest Region," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(2), pages 245-259.
    3. Gary L. Hunt & Richard E. Mueller, 2004. "North American Migration: Returns to Skill, Border Effects, and Mobility Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 988-1007, November.
    4. Chan, Sewin, 2001. "Spatial Lock-in: Do Falling House Prices Constrain Residential Mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 567-586, May.
    5. Kim S. So & Peter F. Orazem & Daniel M. Otto, 2001. "The Effects of Housing Prices, Wages, and Commuting Time on Joint Residential and Job Location Choices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1036-1048.
    6. Hendershott, Patric H. & Ong, Rachel & Wood, Gavin A. & Flatau, Paul, 2009. "Marital history and home ownership: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 13-24, March.
    7. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2006. "Population growth in European cities: Weather matters - but only nationally," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 23-37.
    8. Holger Sieg & V. Kerry Smith & H. Spencer Banzhaf & Randy Walsh, 2004. "Estimating The General Equilibrium Benefits Of Large Changes In Spatially Delineated Public Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1047-1077, November.
    9. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, 1986. "Alternative value estimates of owner-occupied housing: Evidence on sample selection bias and systematic errors," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 356-369, November.
    10. Berger, Mark C. & Blomquist, Glenn C., 1992. "Mobility and destination in migration decisions: The roles of earnings, quality of life, and housing prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 37-59, March.
    11. John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, January.
    12. Barry Chiswick & Paul Miller, 2010. "Occupational language requirements and the value of English in the US labor market," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 353-372, January.
    13. Rappaport, Jordan, 2007. "Moving to nice weather," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 375-398, May.
    14. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
    15. Paul D. Gottlieb & George Joseph, 2006. "College‐To‐Work Migration Of Technology Graduates And Holders Of Doctorates Within The United States," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 627-659, October.
    16. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    17. Ashenfelter, Orley & Harmon, Colm & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1999. "A review of estimates of the schooling/earnings relationship, with tests for publication bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-470, November.
    18. Blomquist, Glenn C & Berger, Mark C & Hoehn, John P, 1988. "New Estimates of Quality of Life in Urban Areas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 89-107, March.
    19. Mueser Peter R. & Graves Philip E., 1995. "Examining the Role of Economic Opportunity and Amenities in Explaining Population Redistribution," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 176-200, March.
    20. Gary L. Hunt & Richard E. Mueller, 2002. "A Methodology for Estimating Returns to Skills for Canadian Provinces and U.S. States," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 127-143, February.
    21. Chen, Yong & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2008. "Local amenities and life-cycle migration: Do people move for jobs or fun?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 519-537, November.
    22. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
    23. Shoshana Grossbard (ed.), 2006. "Jacob Mincer A Pioneer of Modern Labor Economics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-0-387-29175-8.
    24. Dahl, Michael S. & Sorenson, Olav, 2010. "The migration of technical workers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 33-45, January.
    25. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-1390, December.
    26. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    27. Cécile Détang‐Dessendre & Florence Goffette‐Nagot & Virginie Piguet, 2008. "Life Cycle And Migration To Urban And Rural Areas: Estimation Of A Mixed Logit Model On French Data," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 789-824, October.
    28. McGranahan, David A., 1999. "Natural Amenities Drive Rural Population Change," Agricultural Economic Reports 33955, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    29. Bayer, Patrick & Keohane, Nathaniel & Timmins, Christopher, 2009. "Migration and hedonic valuation: The case of air quality," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-14, July.
    30. Paul S. Davies & Michael J. Greenwood & Haizheng Li, 2001. "A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State‐to‐State Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 337-360, May.
    31. Jepsen, Christopher & Jepsen, Lisa K., 2009. "Does home ownership vary by sexual orientation?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 307-315, May.
    32. Allen J. Scott, 2010. "Jobs or amenities? Destination choices of migrant engineers in the USA," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(1), pages 43-63, March.
    33. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
    34. Painter, Gary & Gabriel, Stuart & Myers, Dowell, 2001. "Race, Immigrant Status, and Housing Tenure Choice," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 150-167, January.
    35. Gary L. Hunt, 2000. "Alternative Nested Logit Model Structures and the Special Case of Partial Degeneracy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 89-113, February.
    36. Eichman, Henry & Hunt, Gary L. & Kerkvliet, Joe & Plantinga, Andrew J., 2010. "Local Employment Growth, Migration, and Public Land Policy: Evidence from the Northwest Forest Plan," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-18, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xiaomeng & Huang, Siyu & Chen, Jiawei & Chen, Qinghua, 2020. "Analysis of the driving factors of U.S. domestic population mobility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    2. Michael Klien, 2016. "Österreich 2025 – Perspektiven einer regional differenzierten Wohnungs- und Verkehrspolitik vor dem Hintergrund des demographischen Wandels in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(11), pages 799-808, November.
    3. Yuan, Feng & Wu, Jiawei & Wei, Yehua Dennis & Wang, Lei, 2018. "Policy change, amenity, and spatiotemporal dynamics of housing prices in Nanjing, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 225-236.
    4. Joshua K. Abbott & H. Allen Klaiber & V. Kerry Smith, 2015. "Economic Behavior, Market Signals, and Urban Ecology," NBER Working Papers 20959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cattivelli, Valentina, 2020. "Planning peri-urban areas at regional level: The experience of Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna," MPRA Paper 101189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Patricia Abelairas-Etxebarria & Inma Astorkiza, 2020. "Space-Time Analysis of Migrations, Employment, and Housing as A Basis for Municipal Sustainable Urban Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-13, March.
    7. Jaewon Lim, 2017. "Out-migration from the epicenters of the housing bubble burst during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession in the USA," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(2), pages 297-319, September.
    8. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Jin Hu & Xuelei Xiong & Yuanyuan Cai & Feng Yuan, 2020. "The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    10. Siqi Zheng & Xiaonan Zhang & Weizeng Sun & Chengtao Lin, 2019. "Air pollution and elite college graduates’ job location choice: evidence from China," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(2), pages 295-316, October.
    11. Nikolay Kurichev & Ekaterina Kuricheva, 2020. "Interregional migration, the housing market, and a spatial shift in the metro area: Interrelationships in the case study of Moscow," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 689-703, August.
    12. Jia, Ning & Molloy, Raven & Smith, Christopher L. & Wozniak, Abigail, 2022. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," IZA Discussion Papers 15047, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Yang, Zhenbing & Chen, Zhuo & Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili, 2022. "Can housing price regulation improve R&D performance in universities? Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    14. Cattivelli, Valentina, 2021. "Planning peri-urban areas at regional level: The experience of Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna (Italy)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. H. Allen Klaiber & Joshua K. Abbott & V. Kerry Smith, 2017. "Some Like It (Less) Hot: Extracting Trade-Off Measures for Physically Coupled Amenities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 1053-1079.
    16. Lu, Jiajun, 2020. "Household residential location choice in retirement: The role of climate amenities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Chigusa Okamoto, 2019. "The effect of automation levels on US interstate migration," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(3), pages 519-539, December.
    18. Cho, Cheol-Joo, 2017. "The displacement and attraction effects in interurban migration: An application of the input-output scheme to the case of large cities in Korea," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Annie Tubadji & Valentina Montalto, 2021. "Geographies of Flowers and Geographies of Flower Power," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Richard Cebula, 2014. "The Impact of Economic Freedom and Personal Freedom on Net In-Migration in the U.S.: A State-Level Empirical Analysis, 2000 to 2010," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 88-103, March.
    21. Chan, Sewin & O'Regan, Katherine & You, Wei, 2021. "Migration choices of the boomerang generation: Does returning home dampen labor market adjustment?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yong Chen & David J. Lewis & Bruce Weber, 2016. "Conservation Land Amenities And Regional Economies: A Postmatching Difference-In-Differences Analysis Of The Northwest Forest Plan," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 373-394, June.
    2. McDuff, DeForest, 2011. "Demand substitution across US cities: Observable similarity and home price correlation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Li, Xiaomeng & Huang, Siyu & Chen, Jiawei & Chen, Qinghua, 2020. "Analysis of the driving factors of U.S. domestic population mobility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    4. W. Mark Brown & Darren M. Scott, 2012. "Human Capital Location Choice: Accounting For Amenities And Thick Labor Markets," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(5), pages 787-808, December.
    5. Arthur Grimes & Shaan Badenhorst & David C. Maré & Jacques Poot, 2020. "Hometown whanau or big city millennials? The economic geography of graduate destination choices in New Zealand," Working Papers 20_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Ernest Miguélez & Rosina Moreno, 2014. "What Attracts Knowledge Workers? The Role Of Space And Social Networks," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 33-60, January.
    7. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Dennett, Julia, 2013. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 322-337.
    8. Dan S. Rickman & Shane D. Rickman, 2011. "Population Growth In High‐Amenity Nonmetropolitan Areas: What'S The Prognosis?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(5), pages 863-879, December.
    9. Anil Rupasingha & Yongzheng Liu & Mark Partridge, 2015. "Rural Bound: Determinants of Metro to Non-Metro Migration in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(3), pages 680-700.
    10. Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "The duelling models: NEG vs amenity migration in explaining US engines of growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 513-536, August.
    11. John Carruthers & Gordon F. Mulligan, 2012. "The plane of living and the precrisis evolution of housing values in the USA," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 739-773, July.
    12. Huasheng Song & Min Zhang & Ruqu Wang, 2016. "Amenities and spatial talent distribution: evidence from the Chinese IT industry," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(3), pages 517-533.
    13. Benjamin Wirth, 2013. "Ranking German regions using interregional migration - What does internal migration tells us about regional well-being?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1254, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Martin A. Carree & Kristin Kronenberg, 2014. "Locational Choices and the Costs of Distance: Empirical Evidence for Dutch Graduates," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 420-435, October.
    15. Koşar, Gizem & Ransom, Tyler & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2022. "Understanding migration aversion using elicited counterfactual choice probabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 123-147.
    16. John V. Winters, 2017. "Do earnings by college major affect graduate migration?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(3), pages 629-649, November.
    17. Heather M. Stephens & Mark D. Partridge, 2015. "Lake Amenities, Environmental Degradation, and Great Lakes Regional Growth," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 38(1), pages 61-91, January.
    18. John Winters, 2013. "Differences in quality of life estimates using rents and home values," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 51(2), pages 377-409, October.
    19. Klaiber, H. Allen, 2014. "Migration and household adaptation to climate: A review of empirical research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 539-547.
    20. Alessandra Faggian & M. Rose Olfert & Mark D. Partridge, 2011. "Inferring regional well-being from individual revealed preferences: the 'voting with your feet' approach," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 5(1), pages 163-180.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional migration; housing supply and markets; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02650271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.