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Quasi-experimental impact estimates of immigrant labor supply shocks: The role of treatment and comparison group matching and relative skill composition

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  • Aydemir, Abdurrahman B.
  • Kırdar, Murat G.

Abstract

This paper examines the employment effects of a large burst of immigration—the politically-driven exodus of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria into Turkey in 1989. In some locations, the rise in the labor force due to this inflow of repatriates was 5–10%. The strong involvement of the Turkish state in the settlement of earlier waves of repatriates provides us a strong source of exogenous variation in the 1989 immigrant shock across locations and brings our study closer to an ideal natural experiment. We find that a 1% increase in the labor force due to repatriates increases the unemployment rate of native men by about 0.3 percentage points 14 months after the end of the repatriate flow. When the analysis is done according to skill groups, the impact on non-repatriates is the strongest among the young and those with similar educational attainment to repatriates. Using a reservoir of 342 cities and towns with variable treatment intensity, we also construct a matched sample that is well balanced in terms of covariate distributions of the treatment and comparison groups—using propensity score matching. Using this methodology, we demonstrate the importance of constructing well-matched samples prior to IV estimation—which leads to impact estimates that are more than 50% higher than those with the baseline sample.

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  • Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Kırdar, Murat G., 2017. "Quasi-experimental impact estimates of immigrant labor supply shocks: The role of treatment and comparison group matching and relative skill composition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 282-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:98:y:2017:i:c:p:282-315
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.07.005
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    Cited by:

    1. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Wage Impact Of The Marielitos: A Reappraisal," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 12, pages 375-408, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Aksu, Ege & Erzan, Refik & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "The impact of mass migration of Syrians on the Turkish labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Mette Foged & Linea Hasager & Vasil Yasenov, 2022. "The role of labor market institutions in the impact of immigration on wages and employment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 164-213, January.
    4. Aubry, Amandine & Burzyński, Michał & Docquier, Frédéric, 2016. "The welfare impact of global migration in OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Erten, Bilge & Keskin, Pinar, 2021. "Female employment and intimate partner violence: Evidence from Syrian Refugee inflows to Turkey," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Murat Demirci & Meltem Poyraz, 2021. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Handling Irregularities Resulting from the 2014 Revisions to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-25.
    7. Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Kırdar, Murat G., 2017. "Quasi-experimental impact estimates of immigrant labor supply shocks: The role of treatment and comparison group matching and relative skill composition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 282-315.
    8. Evren Ceritoglu & H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Huzeyfe Torun & Semih Tumen, 2017. "The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, December.
    9. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg & Jan Stuhler, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 31-56, Fall.
    10. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Cilasun, Seyit Mümin & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2024. "Propagation of Immigration Shocks through Firm-to-Firm Trade Networks," IZA Discussion Papers 16770, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Aracı, Doğu Tan & Demirci, Murat & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2021. "Development Level of Hosting Areas and the Impact of Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 14267, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Çakır, Selcen & Erbay, Elif & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2021. "Syrian Refugees and Human Capital Accumulation of Native Children in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 14972, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Postepska, Agnieszka & Voloshyna, Anastasiia, 2024. "The Effect of Ukrainian Refugees on the Local Labour Markets: The Case of Czechia," IZA Discussion Papers 16965, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Aracı, Doğu Tan & Demirci, Murat & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "Development level of hosting areas and the impact of refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey☆," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Labanca, Claudio, 2020. "The effects of a temporary migration shock: Evidence from the Arab Spring migration through Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor force and employment; Immigrant workers; Propensity score matching; Instrumental variable; Comparison groups;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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