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The effects of a temporary migration shock: Evidence from the Arab Spring migration through Italy

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  • Labanca, Claudio

Abstract

This study estimates the short-term effects of migration on the employment and wages of native workers in Italy using the exogenous and temporary migration resulting from the Arab Spring. While migration does not affect native wages or overall employment, we find significant and offsetting short-term employment effects across industries. The positive employment effects are consistent with a rise in sectoral employment operating through increased demand due to immigrants. In negatively affected sectors, we estimate quarterly displacement effects of 4 natives for every 100 additional immigrants residing in a region. Both the positive and negative effects on employment tend to dissipate over time.

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  • Labanca, Claudio, 2020. "The effects of a temporary migration shock: Evidence from the Arab Spring migration through Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s092753712030107x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101903
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    2. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    3. Nedoncelle, Clément & Marchal, Léa & Aubry, Amandine & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2024. "Does immigration affect native wages? A meta-analysis," KCG Working Papers 31, Kiel Centre for Globalization (KCG).
    4. Auer, Daniel & Götz, Lilia, 2021. "Refugee migration, labor demand, and local employment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 989, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Marica Valente & Timm Gries & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "Informal employment from migration shocks," Working Papers 2023-09, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Kilic, Tugce, 2025. "Does sectoral diversification matter? The impact of Syrian refugees on Germany's labor market," IPE Working Papers 253/2025, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    7. Stefano Fusaro & Enrique López‐Bazo, 2021. "Immigration and Native Employment. Evidence from Italian Provinces in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 405-428, April.
    8. Lara Bohnet & Susana Peralta & Joao Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "Cousins from overseas: the labour market impact of half a million Portuguese repatriates," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2114, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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