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Does sectoral diversification matter? The impact of Syrian refugees on Germany's labor market

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  • Kilic, Tugce

Abstract

This study investigates how the economic structure of host regions shapes the labor market impacts of refugee inflows, focusing on the case of the Syrian refugee influx into Germany in 2014-2015. Utilizing a fuzzy difference-in-differences approach, the analysis introduces a novel measure of sectoral diversification to assess local absorptive capacity. The results show that sectoral diversification plays a significant role in moderating short-term labor market outcomes. Counties with less diversified employment structures experience greater adverse impacts on non-German workers, while more diversified regions are better able to absorb new arrivals and mitigate unemployment pressures. These results underscore the importance of considering local economic structures in the regional allocation of refugees and the design of integration policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilic, Tugce, 2025. "Does sectoral diversification matter? The impact of Syrian refugees on Germany's labor market," IPE Working Papers 253/2025, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:319062
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Labor market; Asylum seekers; Syrian refugees; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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