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The Refugee Crisis and Right-Wing Populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy

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  • Campo, Francesco

    (University of Milan Bicocca)

  • Giunti, Sara

    (University of Milan Bicocca)

  • Mendola, Mariapia

    (University of Milan Bicocca)

Abstract

This paper examines how the 2014-2017 'refugee crisis' in Italy affected voting behaviour and the rise of right-wing populism in national Parliamentary elections. We collect unique administrative data throughout the crisis and leverage exogenous variation in refugee resettlement across Italian municipalities induced by the Dispersal Policy. We find a positive and significant effect of the share of asylum seekers on support for radical-right anti-immigration parties. The effect is heterogeneous across municipality characteristics, yet robust to dispersal policy features. We provide causal evidence that the anti-immigration backlash is not rooted in adverse economic effects, while it is triggered by radical-right propaganda.

Suggested Citation

  • Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2021. "The Refugee Crisis and Right-Wing Populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 14084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14084
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    Cited by:

    1. Augusto Cerqua & Federico Zampollo, 2021. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy," Working Papers 6/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    2. Gamalerio, Matteo & Luca, Mario & Romarri, Alessio & Viskanic, Max, 2023. "Refugee reception, extreme-right voting, and compositional amenities: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Cerqua, Augusto & Zampollo, Federico, 2023. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Endrich, Marek, 2022. "A gate to the world for all? The reaction of neighborhoods in Hamburg to refugee housings," ILE Working Paper Series 65, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    5. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Francesco Campo & Sara Giunti & Mariapia Mendola & Giulia Tura, 2023. "Political Backlash to Refugee Settlement: Cultural and Economic Drivers," Working Papers 522, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    7. Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2024. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Jérôme Gonnot & Federica lo Polito, 2023. "Cultural Transmission and Political Attitudes: Explaining Differences between Natives and Immigrants in Western Europe," Working Papers 2023-12, CEPII research center.
    9. Silvia Peracchi, 2022. "The Migration Crisis in the Local News: Evidence from the French-Italian Border," CESifo Working Paper Series 10070, CESifo.
    10. Jäger, Julian, 2023. "Immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 76, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    11. Matteo Gamalerio & Margherita Negri, 2023. "Not welcome anymore: the effect of electoral incentives on the reception of refugees," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 901-920.
    12. Matteo Gamalerio & Margherita Negri, 2023. "Not welcome anymore: the effect of electoral incentives on the reception of refugees," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 901-920.
    13. Silvia Peracchi, 2023. "Migration Crisis in the Local News: Evidence from the French-Italian Border," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dispersal policy; voting behavior; refugee crisis; immigration; impact evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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