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The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration

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  • Gallegos Torres, Katia

Abstract

How did the large asylum-seeker inflow to Germany in 2015 affect concerns about immigration? Using individual-level panel data for the years 2012–2018 and a policy that allocates asylum-seekers to districts, I identify the effect of exposure to asylum-seekers. In line with the contact hypothesis, living in a high refugee migration district reduced concerns about immigration by 3 pp. Alternatively, a 1 pp. increase in the share of asylum-seekers in the population reduced these concerns by 3.4 pp. The effect appears larger for right-leaning respondents and is driven by districts that do not host a large reception centre. However, the overall trend indicates that after 2015 concerns about immigration increased by about 21 pp. and support for extreme right-wing parties by about 1.7 pp. These trends show considerable heterogeneity for different demographic groups.

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  • Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2023. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:78:y:2023:i:c:s0176268022001264
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102323
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Refugees; Attitudes; Concerns about immigration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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