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Jobs, crime, and votes: A short-run evaluation of the refugee crisis in Germany

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  • Gehrsitz, Markus
  • Ungerer, Martin

Abstract

Millions of refugees made their way to Europe between 2014 and 2015, with over one million arriving in Germany alone. Yet, little is known about the impact of this inflow on labor markets, crime, and voting behavior. This article uses administrative data on refugee allocation and provides an evaluation of the short-run consequences of the refugee in ow. Our identification strategy exploits that a scramble for accommodation determined the assignment of refugees to German counties resulting in exogeneous variations in the number of refugees per county within and across states. Our estimates suggest that migrants have not displaced native workers but have themselves struggled to find gainful employment. We find moderate increases in crime and our analysis further indicates that while at the macro level increased migration was accompanied by increased support for anti-immigrant parties, exposure to refugees at the micro-level had the opposite effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrsitz, Markus & Ungerer, Martin, 2018. "Jobs, crime, and votes: A short-run evaluation of the refugee crisis in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-086, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16086
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    Cited by:

    1. Entorf, Horst & Lange, Martin, 2019. "Refugees Welcome? Understanding the Regional Heterogeneity of Anti-Foreigner Hate Crimes in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12229, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2021. "The Refugee Crisis and Right-Wing Populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 14084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Stips, Felix & Kis-Katos, Krisztina, 2020. "Ethnic Networks and the Employment of Asylum Seekers: Evidence from Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12903, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Huang, Yue & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2019. "Immigration and Crimes against Natives: The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12469, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Deole, Sumit S. & Huang, Yue, 2020. "How do new immigration flows affect existing immigrants? Evidence from the refugee crisis in Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 579, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Bratti, Massimiliano & Deiana, Claudio & Havari, Enkelejda & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Meroni, Elena Claudia, 2020. "Geographical proximity to refugee reception centres and voting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    8. Bredtmann, Julia, 2020. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 886, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Uddfeldt, Arvid, 2021. "The economic effect of the 2015 Refugee Crisis in Sweden: Jobs, Crimes, Prices and Voter turnout," SocArXiv 7yrxq, Center for Open Science.
    10. Felix Stips & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2020. "The impact of co-national networks on asylum seekers’ employment: Quasi-experimental evidence from Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-22, August.
    11. Schaub, Max & Gereke, Johanna & Baldassarri, Delia, 2021. "Strangers in Hostile Lands: Exposure to Refugees and Right-Wing Support in Germany’s Eastern Regions," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 686-717.
    12. Konstantinos Matakos & Riikka Savolainen & Janne Tukiainen, 2020. "Refugee Migration and the Politics of Redistribution: Do Supply and Demand Meet?," Discussion Papers 132, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    13. Dehos, Fabian T., 2017. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Ruhr Economic Papers 737, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Francesco Campo & Sara Giunti & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "The Political Impact of Refugee Migration: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," Working Papers 456, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Refugees; Unemployment; Crime; Voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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