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Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany

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  • Bredtmann, Julia

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of local exposure to refugees on electoral outcomes in the 2016 state election in Germany. Based on quasi-random variation in the allocation of refugees across municipalities and unique data on refugee populations and their type of accommodation, I find that an increase in the population share of refugees increases the vote share of right-wing parties and decreases the vote share of the incumbent federal government parties. The electoral effects, however, are rather small and solely driven by refugees living in centralized accommodation, while no such effects are found for refugees living in decentralized accommodation.

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  • Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:96:y:2022:i:c:s0166046222000473
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103807
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    Cited by:

    1. Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2022. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," DICE Discussion Papers 387, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    2. Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Hessami, Zohal & Khasanboev, Temurbek, 2022. "Political Selection When Uncertainty Is High," IZA Discussion Papers 15509, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2021. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-102, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Refugees; Political economy; Voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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