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Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?

  • Ildefonso Mendez

    ()

  • Isabel Cutillas

Between 1998 and 2008, the immigrant share in Spain jumped from less than 3 % to more than 13 %. We provide bounds on the effect of immigration inflows on natives’ election outcomes by considering alternative assumptions about nationalized immigrants’ participation rates and voting behavior. We find that Latin-American immigration increased natives’ participation rate and their support for the major leftist party (Socialist Workers’ Party) over the major conservative party (People’s Party (PP)). Conversely, African immigration only increased natives’ support for anti-immigration formations relative to the PP while leaving unaffected their participation rate. The estimated effects are of modest size in all cases. We provide suggestive evidence that economic factors cannot account for such a heterogeneity in the effects of interest by immigrants’ ethnic groups. We argue that Spanish natives’ attitudes towards immigrants are mainly driven by noneconomic factors like dissimilarities between natives and immigrants in language, religion, and race. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-013-0471-y
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 135-171

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:27:y:2014:i:1:p:135-171
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  1. Otto, Alkis Henri & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2012. "Immigration and election outcomes: Evidence from city districts in Hamburg," HWWI Research Papers 122, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  2. David Card, 1996. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Working Papers 747, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  3. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Carolina Ortega, 2004. "The Effect Of Immigration On The Employment Opportunities Of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence For Spain," Economics Working Papers we046122, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  4. Francesc Ortega & Libertad González & Lídia Farré Olalla, 2009. "Immigration, family responsibilities and the labor supply of skilled native women," Working Papers. Serie AD 2009-19, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  5. Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2000. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0839, Econometric Society.
  6. M. Angeles Carnero Fernández & Lídia Farré Olalla & Mariano Bosch, 2009. "Information and discrimination in the rental housing market: evidence from a field experiment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2009-21, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  7. Gerdes, Christer & Wadensjö, Eskil, 2008. "The Impact of Immigration on Election Outcomes in Danish Municipalities," IZA Discussion Papers 3586, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. César Alonso-Borrego & Nuno Garoupa & Pablo Vázquez, 2011. "Does immigration cause crime? Evidence from Spain," Economics Working Papers we1108, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  9. Hansen, Christian B., 2007. "Asymptotic properties of a robust variance matrix estimator for panel data when T is large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 597-620, December.
  10. Raquel Carrasco & Juan Jimeno & A. Ortega, 2008. "The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: some evidence for Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 627-648, July.
  11. Martínez i Coma, Ferran & Duval Hernández, Robert, 2009. "Hostility Toward Immigration in Spain," IZA Discussion Papers 4109, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Namkee Ahn & Pablo Vázquez, 2007. "¿Por qué preocupa la inmigración?: Un análisis de los datos de la encuesta del CIS," Working Papers 2007-11, FEDEA.
  13. José G. Montalvo, 2011. "Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1146-1154, November.
  14. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Juan Ramón García & María Navarro, 2008. "The Impact of Immigration on the Regional Growth in Spain," Working Papers 2008-08, FEDEA.
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