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Immigration and election outcomes: Evidence from city districts in Hamburg

  • Otto, Alkis Henri
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of immigration on election outcomes. Our analysis makes use of data on city districts in Hamburg, Germany, during a period of substantial inflows of immigrants and asylum seekers. We find significant and robust effects for changes in foreigner shares on the electoral success of parties that built up a distinctive reputation in immigration politics. In particular, our fixed-effects estimates indicate a positive effect for xenophobic, extreme right-wing parties and an adverse effect for the Green party that actively campaigned for liberal immigration policies and minority rights. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that changes in local compositional amenities shape individual attitudes towards immigration.

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Paper provided by Hamburg School of Business Administration (HSBA) in its series Working Paper Series with number 02/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:hsbawp:022012
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  1. Ortega, Francesc & Polavieja, Javier G., 2009. "Labor-Market Exposure as a Determinant of Attitudes toward Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 4519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  4. Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2008. "Does citizenship matter? The economic impact of naturalizations in Germany," HWWI Research Papers 3-13, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
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  11. O'Rourke, Kevin H. & Sinnott, Richard, 2006. "The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 838-861, December.
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  16. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants: Welfare-State Determinants Across Countries," Working Papers gueconwpa~06-06-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  17. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November.
  18. Sauro Mocetti & Carmine Porello, 2010. "How does immigration affect native internal mobility? New evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 748, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  19. Nikolaj A. Harmon, 2012. "Immigration, Ethnic Diversity and Political Outcomes: Evidence from Denmark," Working Papers 1383, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  20. Martin Steininger & Ralph Rotte, 2009. "Crime, unemployment, and xenophobia?," Review of Regional Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 29-63, February.
  21. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
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