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Immigration and election outcomes: Evidence from city districts in Hamburg

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  • Otto, Alkis Henri
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of immigration on election outcomes. Our analysis makes use of data on city districts in Hamburg, Germany, during a period of substantial inflows of immigrants and asylum seekers. We find significant and robust effects for changes in foreigner shares on the electoral success of parties that built up a distinctive reputation in immigration politics. In particular, our fixed-effects estimates indicate a positive effect for xenophobic, extreme right-wing parties and an adverse effect for the Green party that actively campaigned for liberal immigration policies and minority rights. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that changes in local compositional amenities shape individual attitudes towards immigration.

Suggested Citation

  • Otto, Alkis Henri & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2012. "Immigration and election outcomes: Evidence from city districts in Hamburg," Working Paper Series 02/2012, Hamburg School of Business Administration (HSBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hsbawp:022012
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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Bracco & Maria De Paola & Colin Peter Green & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2017. "The Effect of Far Right Parties on the Location Choice of Immigrants: Evidence from Lega Nord Mayors," Working Papers 156985061, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    2. Brunner, Beatrice & Kuhn, Andreas, 2014. "Immigration, Cultural Distance and Natives' Attitudes Towards Immigrants: Evidence from Swiss Voting Results," IZA Discussion Papers 8409, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Mayda, Anna Maria & Peri, Giovanni & Steingress, Walter, 2015. "Immigration to the U.S.: A Problem for the Republicans or the Democrats?," IZA Discussion Papers 9543, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    5. Anna Maria Mayda & Giovanni Peri & Walter Steingress, 2018. "The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States," NBER Working Papers 24510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Egidio Farina, 2017. "They win, I leave: the impact of the Northern League party on foreign internal migration," Working Paper Series 0617, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    7. Bräuninger, Michael, 2014. "Tax sovereignty and feasibility of international regulations for tobacco tax policies," HWWI Research Papers 152, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    8. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Hillmann, Katja, 2012. "Impact of Benefit Sanctions on Unemployment Outflow - Evidence from German Survey Data," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Andreas Steinmayr, 2016. "Exposure to Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right. (Unexpected) Results from Austria," WIFO Working Papers 514, WIFO.
    10. Bratti, Massimiliano & Deiana, Claudio & Havari, Enkelejda & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Meroni, Elena Claudia, 2017. "What Are You Voting For? Proximity to Refugee Reception Centres and Voting in the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum," IZA Discussion Papers 11060, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Barone, Guglielmo & D'Ignazio, Alessio & de Blasio, Guido & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2016. "Mr. Rossi, Mr. Hu and politics. The role of immigration in shaping natives' voting behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Colussi, Tommaso & Isphording, Ingo E. & Pestel, Nico, 2016. "Minority Salience and Political Extremism," IZA Discussion Papers 10417, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Anthony Edo & Yvonne Giesing & Jonathan Öztunc & Panu Poutvaara, 2017. "Immigration and Electoral Support for the Far Left and the Far Right," ifo Working Paper Series 244, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Fabrizio Patriarca & Rama Dasi Mariani & Eugenio Levi, 2017. "Hate at First Sight? Dynamic Aspects of the Electoral Impact of Migrations: The Case of the UK and Brexit," SPRU Working Paper Series 2017-21, SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex.
    15. Hisahiro Naito and Mizuho Asai, 2018. "Did the Presence of Immigrants Affect Vote Outcome in the UK Brexit Referendum ?," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2018-003, Economics, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    16. Altindag, Onur & Kaushal, Neeraj, 2017. "Do Refugees Impact Voting Behavior in the Host Country? Evidence from Syrian Refugee Inflows in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 10849, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    17. Barone, Guglielmo & D'Ignazio, Alessio & de Blasio, Guido & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2014. "Mr. Rossi, Mr. Hu and Politics: The Role of Immigration in Shaping Natives' Political Preferences," IZA Discussion Papers 8228, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    18. Christian Dustman & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2016. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1619, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    19. Paul Vertier & Max Viskanic, 2018. "Dismantling the "Jungle": Migrant Relocation and Extreme Voting in France," CESifo Working Paper Series 6927, CESifo Group Munich.
    20. Alessandro Sola, 2018. "The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany: Concerns about Immigration and Populism," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 966, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    21. Ildefonso Mendez & Isabel Cutillas, 2014. "Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 135-171, January.
    22. Jackline Wahba & Ishac Diwan & Michele Tuccio, 2017. "Diaspora Networks as a Bridge between Civilizations," Working Papers 1094, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Nov 2017.
    23. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    24. Tomassi, Federico, 2014. "Changes in the Eternal City: Inequalities, commons, and elections in Rome districts from 2000 to 2013," MPRA Paper 56227, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; elections; xenophobia;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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