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Immigration and election outcomes: Evidence from city districts in Hamburg

  • Otto, Alkis Henri
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of immigration on election outcomes. Our analysis makes use of data on city districts in Hamburg, Germany, during a period of substantial inflows of immigrants and asylum seekers. We find significant and robust effects for changes in foreigner shares on the electoral success of parties that built up a distinctive reputation in immigration politics. In particular, our fixed-effects estimates indicate a positive effect for xenophobic, extreme right-wing parties and an adverse effect for the Green party that actively campaigned for liberal immigration policies and minority rights. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that changes in local compositional amenities shape individual attitudes towards immigration.

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Paper provided by Hamburg School of Business Administration (HSBA) in its series Working Paper Series with number 02/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hsbawp:022012
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  1. O'Rourke, Kevin H. & Sinnott, Richard, 2006. "The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 838-861, December.
  2. Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University), 2005. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  3. Facchini, Giovanni & Mayda, Anna Maria, 2006. "Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants: Welfare-State Determinants Across Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 2127, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2012. "Does citizenship matter? The economic impact of naturalizations in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 813-823.
  5. Martin Halla & Alexander F. Wagner & Josef Zweimüller, 2012. "Does Immigration into Their Neighborhoods Incline Voters Toward the Extreme Right? The Case of the Freedom Party of Austria," NRN working papers 2012-04, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  6. Gordon H. Hanson & Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew Slaughter, 2005. "Public Finance and Individual Preferences over Globalization Strategies," NBER Working Papers 11028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peri, Giovanni & Sparber, Chad, 2011. "Assessing inherent model bias: An application to native displacement in response to immigration," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 82-91, January.
  8. Dustmann, Christian & Preston, Ian, 2000. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2009. "Immigration, Wages, and Compositional Amenities," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0929, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  10. Sauro Mocetti & Carmine Porello, 2010. "How does immigration affect native internal mobility? New evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 748, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Martin Steininger & Ralph Rotte, 2009. "Crime, unemployment, and xenophobia?," Review of Regional Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 29-63, February.
  12. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
  13. Francesc Ortega & Javier G. Polavieja, 2009. "Labor-market exposure as a determinant of attitudes toward immigration," Working Papers 2009-14, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  14. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
  15. Nannestad, Peter, 2007. "Immigration and welfare states: A survey of 15 years of research," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 512-532, June.
  16. Dustmann, Christian & Preston, Ian, 2001. "Attitudes to Ethic Minorities, Ethnic Context and Location Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 353-73, April.
  17. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November.
  18. David Card, 2007. "How Immigration Affects U.S. Cities," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0711, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  19. Gerdes, Christer & Wadensjö, Eskil, 2010. "The impact of immigration on election outcomes in Danish municipalities," SULCIS Working Papers 2010:3, Stockholm University Linnaeus Center for Integration Studies - SULCIS.
  20. Ortega, Francesc, 2005. "Immigration quotas and skill upgrading," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1841-1863, September.
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