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Immigration and election outcomes — Evidence from city districts in Hamburg

  • Otto, Alkis Henri
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of immigration on local election outcomes. Our analysis makes use of data on city districts in Hamburg, Germany, during a period of substantial inflows of immigrants and asylum seekers. We find significant and robust effects for changes in foreigner shares on the electoral success of parties that built up a distinctive reputation in immigration politics. In particular, our fixed-effects estimates indicate a positive effect for xenophobic, extreme right-wing parties and an adverse effect for the Green party that actively campaigned for liberal immigration policies and minority rights. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that non-economic determinants and welfare state considerations are important in shaping individual attitudes towards immigration.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 67-79

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:67-79
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec

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  1. O'Rourke, Kevin H. & Sinnott, Richard, 2006. "The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 838-861, December.
  2. Dustmann, Christian & Preston, Ian, 2001. "Attitudes to Ethic Minorities, Ethnic Context and Location Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 353-73, April.
  3. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
  4. Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2012. "Does citizenship matter? The economic impact of naturalizations in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 813-823.
  5. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November.
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  7. Halla, Martin & Wagner, Alexander F. & Zweimüller, Josef, 2012. "Does Immigration into Their Neighborhoods Incline Voters Toward the Extreme Right? The Case of the Freedom Party of Austria," IZA Discussion Papers 6575, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Mocetti, Sauro & Porello, Carmine, 2010. "How does immigration affect native internal mobility? New evidence from Italy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 427-439, November.
  9. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2012. "Immigration, Wages, and Compositional Amenities," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012013, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  10. Ortega, Francesc & Polavieja, Javier G., 2009. "Labor-Market Exposure as a Determinant of Attitudes toward Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 4519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  12. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2010. "Assessing Inherent Model Bias: An Application to Native Displacement in Response to Immigration," NBER Working Papers 16332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Facchini, Giovanni & Mayda, Anna Maria, 2006. "Individual Attitudes Towards Immigrants: Welfare-State Determinants Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Gordon H. Hanson & Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2005. "Public Finance and Individual Preferences Over Globalization Strategies," Working Papers 524, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  15. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
  16. David Card, 2007. "How Immigration Affects U.S. Cities," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0711, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  17. Ortega, Francesc, 2005. "Immigration quotas and skill upgrading," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1841-1863, September.
  18. Martin Steininger & Ralph Rotte, 2009. "Crime, unemployment, and xenophobia?," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 29-63, February.
  19. Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2004. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0401, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  20. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
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