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Immigration and election outcomes — Evidence from city districts in Hamburg

  • Otto, Alkis Henri
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of immigration on local election outcomes. Our analysis makes use of data on city districts in Hamburg, Germany, during a period of substantial inflows of immigrants and asylum seekers. We find significant and robust effects for changes in foreigner shares on the electoral success of parties that built up a distinctive reputation in immigration politics. In particular, our fixed-effects estimates indicate a positive effect for xenophobic, extreme right-wing parties and an adverse effect for the Green party that actively campaigned for liberal immigration policies and minority rights. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that non-economic determinants and welfare state considerations are important in shaping individual attitudes towards immigration.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016604621400012X
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 67-79

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:67-79
DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2014.01.004
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec

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  1. Sauro Mocetti & Carmine Porello, 2010. "How does immigration affect native internal mobility? New evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 748, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Ortega, Francesc & Polavieja, Javier G., 2012. "Labor-market exposure as a determinant of attitudes toward immigration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 298-311.
  3. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
  4. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2012. "Immigration, Wages, and Compositional Amenities," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012013, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  5. Gordon H. Hanson & Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew Slaughter, 2005. "Public Finance and Individual Preferences over Globalization Strategies," NBER Working Papers 11028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Gerdes, Christer & Wadensjö, Eskil, 2010. "The impact of immigration on election outcomes in Danish municipalities," SULCIS Working Papers 2010:3, Stockholm University Linnaeus Center for Integration Studies - SULCIS.
  8. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants: Welfare-State Determinants Across Countries," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0604, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  9. Martin Steininger & Ralph Rotte, 2009. "Crime, unemployment, and xenophobia?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 29(1), pages 29-63, February.
  10. Ortega, Francesc, 2005. "Immigration quotas and skill upgrading," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1841-1863, September.
  11. David Card, 2007. "How Immigration Affects U.S. Cities," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0711, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  12. Dustmann, Christian & Preston, Ian, 2000. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2008. "Does citizenship matter? The economic impact of naturalizations in Germany," HWWI Research Papers 3-13, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  14. Nannestad, Peter, 2007. "Immigration and welfare states: A survey of 15 years of research," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 512-532, June.
  15. Halla, Martin & Wagner, Alexander F. & Zweimüller, Josef, 2012. "Does Immigration into Their Neighborhoods Incline Voters Toward the Extreme Right? The Case of the Freedom Party of Austria," IZA Discussion Papers 6575, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. O'Rourke, Kevin H. & Sinnott, Richard, 2006. "The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 838-861, December.
  17. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2010. "Assessing Inherent Model Bias: An Application to Native Displacement in Response to Immigration," NBER Working Papers 16332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
  19. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
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  21. repec:pri:indrel:harmon2012immigration_irswp is not listed on IDEAS
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