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Immigration and election outcomes — Evidence from city districts in Hamburg

  • Otto, Alkis Henri
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of immigration on local election outcomes. Our analysis makes use of data on city districts in Hamburg, Germany, during a period of substantial inflows of immigrants and asylum seekers. We find significant and robust effects for changes in foreigner shares on the electoral success of parties that built up a distinctive reputation in immigration politics. In particular, our fixed-effects estimates indicate a positive effect for xenophobic, extreme right-wing parties and an adverse effect for the Green party that actively campaigned for liberal immigration policies and minority rights. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that non-economic determinants and welfare state considerations are important in shaping individual attitudes towards immigration.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 67-79

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:67-79
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec

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  1. Halla, Martin & Wagner, Alexander F & Zweimüller, Josef, 2012. "Does Immigration Into Their Neighborhoods Incline Voters Toward the Extreme Right? The Case of the Freedom Party of Austria," CEPR Discussion Papers 9102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  3. Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University), 2005. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
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  10. Mocetti, Sauro & Porello, Carmine, 2010. "How does immigration affect native internal mobility? New evidence from Italy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 427-439, November.
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  14. Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2008. "Does citizenship matter? The economic impact of naturalizations in Germany," Development Working Papers 266, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
  15. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
  16. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November.
  17. David Card, 2007. "How Immigration Affects U.S. Cities," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0711, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  18. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
  19. Ortega, Francesc, 2005. "Immigration quotas and skill upgrading," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1841-1863, September.
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