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Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities

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  • Jakub Lonsky

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in a municipality decreases the Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for the welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Lonsky, 2021. "Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 97-139, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:34:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-020-00784-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-020-00784-4
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    1. Chris Sampson’s journal round-up for 23rd November 2020
      by Chris Sampson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog on 2020-11-23 12:00:14

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    2. Hangartner, Dominik & Sarvimäki, Matti & Spirig, Judith, 2021. "Managing Refugee Protection Crises: Policy Lessons from Economics and Political Science," IZA Discussion Papers 14821, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Jakub Grossmann & Stepan Jurajda, 2023. "Voting under Debtor Distress," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp744, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Schirner, Sebastian & Hessami, Zohal, 2023. "Migration Shocks, Elections, and Political Selection," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277670, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Zhang, Zhijian & Wang, Xueyuan, 2022. "Birthplace diversity and private giving: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Rania Gihleb & Osea Giuntalla & Luca Stella, 2022. "Exposure to Past Immigration Waves and Attitudes toward Newcomers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9941, CESifo.
    7. Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2024. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Carlo Devillanova, 2021. "Tolerant or segregated? Immigration and electoral outcomes in urban areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 495-515, April.
    9. Dreher, Axel & Langlotz, Sarah & Matzat, Johannes & Parsons, Christopher, 2020. "Immigration, Political Ideologies and the Polarization of American Politics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Silvia Peracchi, 2022. "The Migration Crisis in the Local News: Evidence from the French-Italian Border," CESifo Working Paper Series 10070, CESifo.
    12. Hessami, Zohal & Schirner, Sebastian, 2024. "Immigration Shocks and Shifting Social Group Boundaries," IZA Discussion Papers 17343, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski, 2020. "Hosting Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right: Evidence from France," PSE Working Papers halshs-02982827, HAL.
    14. Kayaoglu, Aysegul, 2022. "Do refugees cause crime?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Emanuele Bracco & Luisanna Onnis, 2022. "Immigration, amnesties, and the shadow economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1135-1162, October.
    16. Pieroni, Luca & Roig, Melcior Rosselló & Salmasi, Luca, 2023. "Italy: Immigration and the evolution of populism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Adrian Mehic, 2022. "Regional aspects of immigration‐related changes in political preferences," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1386-1413, November.
    18. Jäger, Julian, 2023. "Immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 76, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    19. Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski, 2020. "Hosting Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right: Evidence from France," Working Papers halshs-02982827, HAL.
    20. Cerruti, Gianluca & Robbiano, Simone, 2024. "Presence of Migrants and Voting Behavior in Europe: An Overview of the Empirical Literature," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(4), pages 515-554.
    21. Mourelatos, Evangelos & Oikarinen, Elias, 2023. "Ethnic discrimination during wartime: Evidence from a field experiment in the Finnish housing market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    22. Jiménez, Bruno, 2023. "The Political economy of the minimum wage," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    23. Lebow, Jeremy & Moreno-Medina, Jonathan & Mousa, Salma & Coral, Horacio, 2024. "Migrant exposure and anti-migrant sentiment: The case of the Venezuelan exodus," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    24. Francesco Campo & Sara Giunti & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "The Political Impact of Refugee Migration: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," Working Papers 456, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    25. Silvia Peracchi, 2023. "Migration Crisis in the Local News: Evidence from the French-Italian Border," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Far-right; Political economy; Voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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