IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/947.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level

Author

Listed:
  • Fremerey, Melinda
  • Hörnig, Lukas
  • Schaffner, Sandra

Abstract

We investigate the effect of the refugee inflow between 2014 and 2017 on voting for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the national parliamentary election in 2017 in Germany. Drawing on unique small-scale data enables us to distinguish between the contact theory, captured by the inflow of refugees into the immediate neighborhood (1km x 1km), and county-level (NUTS 3) effects, which might pick-up other, broader factors such as media coverage or specific county-level policies. We alleviate concerns of an endogenous refugee allocation by a shift-share instrument. Our results indicate that the contact theory is valid in urban West Germany, i. e., higher refugee inflows in West German urban neighborhoods decrease the shares of far-right voting, while there is no robust evidence of a relationship between refugee inflow and far-right vote shares in East Germany and rural West Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2022. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," Ruhr Economic Papers 947, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:947
    DOI: 10.4419/96973109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/251960/1/1798275643.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4419/96973109?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bauer, Thomas K. & Epstein, Gil S. & Gang, Ira N., 2002. "Herd Effects or Migration Networks? The Location Choice of Mexican Immigrants in the U.S," IZA Discussion Papers 551, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Saiz, Albert, 2007. "Immigration and housing rents in American cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 345-371, March.
    3. Milo Bianchi & Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "Do Immigrants Cause Crime?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1318-1347, December.
    4. Christian Dustmann & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2019. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 2035-2091.
    5. Edo, Anthony & Giesing, Yvonne & Öztunc, Jonathan & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-143.
    6. Glitz, Albrecht, 2014. "Ethnic segregation in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 28-40.
    7. Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    8. Stelios Roupakias & Michael Chletsos, 2020. "Immigration and far-right voting: evidence from Greece," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(3), pages 591-617, December.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5382 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    11. Schaffner, Sandra, 2020. "FDZ data description: Real-estate data for Germany (RWI-GEO-RED v3) - Advertisements on the internet platform ImmobilienScout24. 2007-06/2020," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 242996.
    12. Anna Maria Mayda & Giovanni Peri & Walter Steingress, 2022. "The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 358-389, January.
    13. Dinas, Elias & Matakos, Konstantinos & Xefteris, Dimitrios & Hangartner, Dominik, 2019. "Waking Up the Golden Dawn: Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Increase Support for Extreme-Right Parties?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 244-254, April.
    14. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    15. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    16. Martin Halla & Alexander F. Wagner & Josef Zweimüller, 2017. "Immigration and Voting for the Far Right," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(6), pages 1341-1385.
    17. Gehrsitz, Markus & Ungerer, Martin, 2017. "Jobs, Crime, and Votes: A Short-run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 10494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Inglehart, Ronald F. & Norris, Pippa, 2016. "Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash," Working Paper Series 16-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1996. "European Migration: Push and Pull," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 19(1-2), pages 95-128, April.
    20. González, Libertad & Ortega, Francesc, 2011. "How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Evidence from Spanish regions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 57-70, January.
    21. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 324-341, November.
    22. Bartel, Ann P, 1989. "Where Do the New U.S. Immigrants Live?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 371-391, October.
    23. Dehos, Fabian T., 2021. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    24. Massimo Anelli & Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2019. "We Were the Robots: Automation and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 7758, CESifo.
    25. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Post-Print hal-02381560, HAL.
    26. Stuhler, Jan & Jaeger, David & Ruist, Joakim, 2018. "Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Richard Florida, 2002. "Bohemia and economic geography," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 55-71, January.
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2021. "The Refugee Crisis and Right-Wing Populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 14084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    30. Andreas Steinmayr, 2021. "Contact versus Exposure: Refugee Presence and Voting for the Far Right," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 310-327, May.
    31. Tabellini, Marco, 2020. "Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 14317, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Verena Dill, 2013. "Ethnic Concentration and Extreme Right-Wing Voting Behavior in West Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 565, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    33. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the UK Labour Market," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0501, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    34. Christian Dippel & Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich, 2015. "Globalization and Its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior," NBER Working Papers 21812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    36. Morelli, Massimo & Bellodi, Luca & Vannoni, Matia, 2021. "The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance:," CEPR Discussion Papers 15929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Kaivan Munshi, 2003. "Networks in the Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants in the U. S. Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 549-599.
    38. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance: Evidence from Italian Municipalities," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21158, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    40. David Kretschmer & Hanno Kruse, 2020. "Neighbourhood effects on acculturation attitudes among minority and majority adolescents in Germany," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(16), pages 3363-3380, December.
    41. Marco Tabellini, 2020. "Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 454-486.
    42. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance: Evidence from Italian Municipalities," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21158, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    43. Breidenbach, Philipp & Budde, Rüdiger & Eilers, Lea & Kaeding, Matthias & Schaffner, Sandra, 2018. "Überprüfung des Zuschnitts von Arbeitsmarktregionen für die Neuabgrenzung des GRW-Fördergebiets ab 2021. Endbericht: Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi)," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 181939.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. Dehos, Fabian T., 2021. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Moriconi, Simone & Peri, Giovanni & Turati, Riccardo, 2022. "Skill of the immigrants and vote of the natives: Immigration and nationalism in European elections 2007–2016," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    5. Anthony Edo & Yvonne Giesing, 2020. "Has Immigration Contributed to the Rise of Rightwing Extremist Parties in Europe?," EconPol Policy Reports 23, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Bedasso Biniam E. & Jaupart Pascal, 2020. "South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
    7. Cerqua, Augusto & Zampollo, Federico, 2023. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2021. "Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks," Working Papers 21_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    9. Pieroni, Luca & Roig, Melcior Rosselló & Salmasi, Luca, 2023. "Italy: Immigration and the evolution of populism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Augusto Cerqua & Federico Zampollo, 2021. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy," Working Papers 6/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    11. Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2021. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-102, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Stelios Roupakias & Michael Chletsos, 2020. "Immigration and far-right voting: evidence from Greece," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(3), pages 591-617, December.
    13. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    14. Robert Gold, 2022. "From a better understanding of the drivers of populism to a new political agenda," Working Papers 4, Forum New Economy.
    15. Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2023. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Ajzenman, Nicolas & Dominguez-Rivera, Patricio & Undurraga, Raimundo, 2021. "Immigration, Crime, and Crime (Mis)Perceptions," IZA Discussion Papers 14087, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Edoardo Cefalà, 2022. "The political consequences of mass repatriation," Discussion Papers 2022-05, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    18. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2021. "The Refugee Crisis and Right-Wing Populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 14084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Achard, Pascal & Suetens, Sigrid, 2023. "The Causal Effect of Ethnic Diversity on Support for Redistribution and the Role of Discrimination," Other publications TiSEM a5e6e0cd-5e07-4a24-a15c-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia & Tura, Giulia, 2023. "Political Backlash to Refugee Settlement: Cultural and Economic Drivers," IZA Discussion Papers 16245, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    voting behavior; neighborhood characteristics; refugees; immigration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:947. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.