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Populist Leaders and the Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Funke

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

  • Moritz Schularick

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christoph Trebesch

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Abstract

Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new long run crosscountry database to study the macroeconomic history of populism. We identify 51 populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020 and show that the economic cost of populism is high. After 15 years, GDP per capita is 10% lower compared to a plausible non-populist counterfactual. Economic disintegration, decreasing macroeconomic stability, and the erosion of institutions typically go hand in hand with populist rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-04211174, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-04211174
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20202045
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04211174v1
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    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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