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Brothers or Invaders? How Crises-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior

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  • Sandra Rozo

    (University of Southern California)

  • Juan Vargas

    (Universidad del Rosario)

Abstract

Can voter’s negative attitudes toward immigration be explained by self-interest or sociotropic motives? Self-interested voters care about their personal economic circumstances. Sociotropic voters display in-group bias and perceive migrants as threats to their culture. We study the voting effects of forced internal and international migration in Colombia and exploit the disproportionate flows of migrants to municipalities with early settlements of individuals from their origin locations. In line with the sociotropic hypothesis, we find that only international migration inflows increase political participation and shift votes from left- to right-wing ideologies. These results are not accounted for by the observed changes caused by migrants in socioeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Rozo & Juan Vargas, 2019. "Brothers or Invaders? How Crises-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior," Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers 12, Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:esocpu:12
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Lombardo & Julian Martinez-Correa & Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco & Leonardo Gasparini, 2020. "The distributional effect of a massive exodus in Latin America and the role of downgrading and regularization," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0290, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    2. Rozo, Sandra V. & Quintana, Alejandra & Urbina, Maria José, 2023. "Electoral Effects of Integrating Forced Migrants: Evidence from a Southern Country," IZA Discussion Papers 16171, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Zhou,Yang-Yang & Grossman,Guy & Ge,Shuning, 2022. "Inclusive Refugee-Hosting in Uganda Improves LocalDevelopment and Prevents Public Backlash," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9981, The World Bank.
    4. Tellez,Juan Fernando & Balcells,Laia, 2022. "Social Cohesion, Economic Security, and Forced Displacement in the Long-Run : Evidencefrom Rural Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10019, The World Bank.
    5. José Pulido & Alejandra Varón, 2020. "Misallocation of the Immigrant Workforce: Aggregate Productivity Effects for the Host Country," Borradores de Economia 1135, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco, 2022. "Living with the neighbors: the effect of Venezuelan forced migration on the labor market in Colombia," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 56(1), pages 1-32, December.
    8. Betts,Alexander Milton Stedman & Stierna,Maria Flinder & Omata,Naohiko & Sterck,Olivier Christian Brigitte, 2022. "Social Cohesion and Refugee-Host Interactions : Evidence from East Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9917, The World Bank.
    9. Carlo Lombardo & Julián Martinez-Correa & Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco & Leonardo Gasparini, 2022. "The distributional effect of a migratory exodus in a developing country: the role of downgrading and regularization," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4573, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    10. Andre Groeger & Gianmarco León-Ciliotta & Steven Stillman, 2022. "Immigration, labor markets and discrimination: Evidence from the venezuelan exodus in Perú," Economics Working Papers 1840, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Chatruc,Marisol Rodriguez & Rozo Villarraga,Sandra Viviana, 2022. "Discrimination Toward Migrants During Crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10091, The World Bank.
    12. Aksoy,Cevat Giray & Ginn,Thomas Clinton, 2022. "Attitudes and Policies toward Refugees : Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9985, The World Bank.
    13. Bedasso Biniam E. & Jaupart Pascal, 2020. "South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
    14. Lebow Jeremy, 2022. "The labor market effects of Venezuelan migration to Colombia: reconciling conflicting results," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-49, January.
    15. Knight, Brian & Tribin, Ana, 2023. "Immigration and violent crime: Evidence from the Colombia-Venezuela Border," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Bahar, Dany & Ibáñez, Ana María & Rozo, Sandra V., 2021. "Give me your tired and your poor: Impact of a large-scale amnesty program for undocumented refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Elisa M. Maffioli, 2023. "The local health impacts of natural resource booms," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 462-500, February.
    18. Antonella Bandiera & Lelys Dinarte Diaz & Sandra V. Rozo & Carlos Schmidt-Padilla & María Micaela Sviatschi & Hernan Winkler, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of Deportations: Evidence from Firm Behavior in El Salvador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1331-1358.
    19. Carlo Lombardo & Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco, 2021. "Exports “brother-boost”: the trade-creation and skill-upgrading effect of Venezuelan forced migration on Colombian manufacturing firms," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0283, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    20. Emine Kübra Usta, 2022. "Effects of Refugee Inflow on the Voting Behavior of Natives: Application of Mobile Phone Data [Local Governance Quality and the Environmental Cost of Forced Migration]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 68(3), pages 219-252.
    21. Gallagher,Allen William Andrew & Ruiz,Isabel & Vargas Silva,Carlos Ivan, 2022. "Policy Preferences in Response to Large Migration Inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10055, The World Bank.
    22. Hennig, Jakob, 2021. "Neighborhood quality and opposition to immigration: Evidence from German refugee shelters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    23. Betts, Alexander & Flinder Stierna, Maria & Omata, Naohiko & Sterck, Olivier, 2023. "Refugees welcome? Inter-group interaction and host community attitude formation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    24. Salvador Traettino, 2022. "Migración forzada y finanzas públicas locales: Evidencia de los municipios en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20335, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombia; Economic Development; Political Development; Demographic; Socioeconomic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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