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Brothers or Invaders? How Crises-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior

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  • Sandra Rozo

    (University of Southern California)

  • Juan Vargas

    (Universidad del Rosario)

Abstract

Can voter’s negative attitudes toward immigration be explained by self-interest or sociotropic motives? Self-interested voters care about their personal economic circumstances. Sociotropic voters display in-group bias and perceive migrants as threats to their culture. We study the voting effects of forced internal and international migration in Colombia and exploit the disproportionate flows of migrants to municipalities with early settlements of individuals from their origin locations. In line with the sociotropic hypothesis, we find that only international migration inflows increase political participation and shift votes from left- to right-wing ideologies. These results are not accounted for by the observed changes caused by migrants in socioeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Rozo & Juan Vargas, 2019. "Brothers or Invaders? How Crises-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior," Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers 12, Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:pri:esocpu:12
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Lombardo & Julian Martinez-Correa & Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco & Leonardo Gasparini, 2020. "The distributional effect of a massive exodus in Latin America and the role of downgrading and regularization," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0290, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    2. Bedasso Biniam E. & Jaupart Pascal, 2020. "South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
    3. Bahar, Dany & Ibáñez, Ana María & Rozo, Sandra V., 2021. "Give me your tired and your poor: Impact of a large-scale amnesty program for undocumented refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Carlo Lombardo & Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco, 2021. "Exports “brother-boost†: the trade-creation and skill-upgrading effect of Venezuelan forced migration on Colombian manufacturing firms," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0283, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    5. Hennig, Jakob, 2021. "Neighborhood quality and opposition to immigration: Evidence from German refugee shelters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombia; Economic Development; Political Development; Demographic; Socioeconomic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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