IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucn/wpaper/201814.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud Chevalier
  • Benjamin Elsner
  • Andreas Lichter
  • Nico Pestel

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of immigration on public policy setting. As a natural experiment, we exploit the sudden arrival of eight million forced migrants in West Germany after World War II. These migrants were on average poorer than the West German population, but unlike most international migrants they had full voting rights and were eligible for social welfare. Using panel data for West German cities and applying difference-in-differences and an instrumental variables approach, we show that local governments responded to this migration shock with selective and persistent tax raises as well as shifts in spending. In response to the inflow, farm and business owners were taxed more while residential property and wage bill taxes were left unchanged. Moreover, high-inflow cities significantly raised welfare spending while reducing spending on infrastructure and housing. Election data suggest that these policy changes were partly driven by the political influence of the immigrants: in high-inflow regions, the major parties were more likely to nominate immigrants as candidates, and a pro-immigrant party received high vote shares. We further document that this episode of mass immigration had lasting effects on people’s preferences for redistribution. In areas with larger inflows in the 1940s, people have substantially higher demand for redistribution more than 50 years later.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Chevalier & Benjamin Elsner & Andreas Lichter & Nico Pestel, 2018. "Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State," Working Papers 201814, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201814
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/9482
    File Function: First version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Armando Miano & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2023. "Immigration and Redistribution," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 1-39.
    2. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2015. "Welfare Magnet Hypothesis, Fiscal Burden, and Immigration Skill Selectivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 369-402, April.
    3. Thomas K. Bauer & Sebastian Braun & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "The Economic Integration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post‐War Germany," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 998-1024, September.
    4. Esther Duflo, 2001. "Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 795-813, September.
    5. Braun, Sebastian & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2014. "Immigration and structural change: Evidence from post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 253-269.
    6. Corneo, Giacomo & Gruner, Hans Peter, 2002. "Individual preferences for political redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 83-107, January.
    7. Murard, Elie & Sakalli, Seyhun Orcan, 2018. "Mass Refugee Inflow and Long-Run Prosperity: Lessons from the Greek Population Resettlement," IZA Discussion Papers 11613, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2008. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1766-1797, December.
    9. Corrado Giulietti, 2014. "The welfare magnet hypothesis and the welfare take-up of migrants," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-37, June.
    10. Gundi Knies & C. Katharina Spieß, 2007. "Regional Data in the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP)," Data Documentation 17, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2021. "Immigration and the Future of the Welfare State in Europe," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 697(1), pages 120-147, September.
    12. Joan Llull, 2018. "The Effect of Immigration on Wages: Exploiting Exogenous Variation at the National Level," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 608-662.
    13. Konrad B. Burchardi & Tarek A. Hassan, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Social Ties: Evidence from German Reunification," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1219-1271.
    14. Leah Platt Boustan & Price V. Fishback & Shawn Kantor, 2010. "The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets:American Cities during the Great Depression," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(4), pages 719-746, October.
    15. Alberto Alesina & Reza Baqir & William Easterly, 1999. "Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1243-1284.
    16. Alberto Alesina & Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln, 2005. "Good bye Lenin (or not?): The effect of Communism on people's preferences," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2076, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    17. Sascha O. Becker & Irena Grosfeld & Pauline Grosjean & Nico Voigtländer & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2020. "Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1430-1463, May.
    18. Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2001. "Group Loyalty and the Taste for Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 500-528, June.
    19. Claudia Senik & Holger Stichnoth & Karine Straeten, 2009. "Immigration and Natives’ Attitudes towards the Welfare State: Evidence from the European Social Survey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 91(3), pages 345-370, May.
    20. Semrad, Alexandra, 2015. "Immigration and educational spillovers: evidence from Sudeten German expellees in post-war Bavaria," Discussion Papers in Economics 24851, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    21. Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Fiva, Jon H. & Natvik, Gisle James, 2014. "Voting when the stakes are high," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 157-166.
    22. Baldwin, Richard E. & Krugman, Paul, 2004. "Agglomeration, integration and tax harmonisation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-23, February.
    23. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416-416.
    24. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2012. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Risk and Trust Attitudes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 645-677.
    25. Braun, Sebastian Till & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 11077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    26. Eva Luthi & Kurt Schmidheiny, 2014. "The effect of agglomeration size on local taxes," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 265-287.
    27. Fredrik Andersson & Rikard Forslid, 2003. "Tax Competition and Economic Geography," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 5(2), pages 279-303, April.
    28. Matz Dahlberg & Karin Edmark & Heléne Lundqvist, 2012. "Ethnic Diversity and Preferences for Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 41-76.
    29. Shanker Satyanath & Nico Voigtländer & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2017. "Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 478-526.
    30. Braun, Sebastian Till & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 11077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    31. Phillip B. Levine & David J. Zimmerman, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the welfare magnet debate using the NLSY," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 391-409.
    32. Borjas, George J, 1999. "Immigration and Welfare Magnets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 607-637, October.
    33. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-927, October.
    34. Braun, Sebastian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2017. "The local environment shapes refugee integration: Evidence from post-war Germany," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    35. George R. Zodrow & Peter Mieszkowski, 2019. "Pigou, Tiebout, Property Taxation, and the Underprovision of Local Public Goods," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: George R Zodrow (ed.), TAXATION IN THEORY AND PRACTICE Selected Essays of George R. Zodrow, chapter 17, pages 525-542, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    36. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    37. Abel Schumann, 2014. "Persistence of Population Shocks: Evidence from the Occupation of West Germany after World War II," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 189-205, July.
    38. Neeraj Kaushal, 2005. "New Immigrants' Location Choices: Magnets without Welfare," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(1), pages 59-80, January.
    39. Paola Giuliano & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2014. "Growing up in a Recession," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(2), pages 787-817.
    40. Falck Oliver & Heblich Stephan & Link Susanne, 2012. "Forced Migration and the Effects of an Integration Policy in Post-WWII Germany," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, May.
    41. Braun, Sebastian & Omar Mahmoud, Toman, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Postwar Germany," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 69-108, March.
    42. King, Gary & Rosen, Ori & Tanner, Martin & Wagner, Alexander F., 2008. "Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 951-996, December.
    43. Leah Platt Boustan, 2010. "Was Postwar Suburbanization "White Flight"? Evidence from the Black Migration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 417-443.
    44. Barry Eichengreen & Albrecht Ritschl, 2009. "Understanding West German economic growth in the 1950s," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(3), pages 191-219, October.
    45. Alberto Alesina & Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, 2007. "Goodbye Lenin (or Not?): The Effect of Communism on People," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1507-1528, September.
    46. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Swagel, Phillip, 2002. "Tax burden and migration: a political economy theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 167-190, August.
    47. Goebel Jan & Grabka Markus M. & Liebig Stefan & Kroh Martin & Richter David & Schröder Carsten & Schupp Jürgen, 2019. "The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 345-360, April.
    48. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2015. "Welfare Magnet Hypothesis, Fiscal Burden, and Immigration Skill Selectivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 369-402, April.
    49. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135-135.
    50. Lena Nekby & Per Pettersson‐Lidbom, 2017. "Revisiting the Relationship between Ethnic Diversity and Preferences for Redistribution: Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(2), pages 268-287, April.
    51. Wilson, John D., 1986. "A theory of interregional tax competition," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 296-315, May.
    52. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2014:p:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg & Jan Stuhler, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 31-56, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simone Moriconi & Giovanni Peri & Riccardo Turati, 2022. "Are Immigrants more Left leaning than Natives?," NBER Working Papers 30523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Albarosa, Emanuele & Elsner, Benjamin, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 15850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Alberto Alesina & Armando Miano & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "The Polarization of Reality," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 324-328, May.
    4. Dowon Kim & Dongwon Lee, 2021. "Immigration and the pattern of public spending: evidence from OECD countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(4), pages 1014-1034, August.
    5. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Rozo, Sandra V. & Vargas, Juan F., 2021. "Brothers or invaders? How crisis-driven migrants shape voting behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Alberto Alesina & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Diversity, Immigration, and Redistribution," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 329-334, May.
    8. Moriconi, Simone & Peri, Giovanni & Turati, Riccardo, 2023. "Are Immigrants More Left Wing than Natives?," IZA Discussion Papers 16164, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Makarewicz, Tomasz & Peña, Juan Carlos & Proaño Acosta, Christian, 2021. "Are some people more equal than others? Experimental evidence on group identity and income inequality," BERG Working Paper Series 168, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    10. Emanuele Albarosa & Benjamin Elsner, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1183, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Giuranno Michele G. & Biswas Rongili, 2019. "Internal Migration and Public Policy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(4), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Albarosa, E. & Elsner, B., 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Moriconi, Simone & Peri, Giovanni & Turati, Riccardo, 2019. "Immigration and voting for redistribution: Evidence from European elections," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    14. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    15. Rostislav Staněk & Ondřej Krčál & Štěpán Mikula, 2021. "Social Capital and Mobility: An Experimental Study," MUNI ECON Working Papers 2021-12, Masaryk University, revised Feb 2023.
    16. Nover, Justus, 2023. "Local labor markets as a taxable location factor? Evidence from a shock to foreign labor supply," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-012, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Braun, Sebastian T. & Dwenger, Nadja, 2020. "Settlement location shapes the integration of forced migrants: Evidence from post-war Germany⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Salvador Traettino, 2022. "Migración forzada y finanzas públicas locales: Evidencia de los municipios en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20335, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Braun, Sebastian T. & Dwenger, Nadja, 2020. "Settlement location shapes the integration of forced migrants: Evidence from post-war Germany⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II [The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 481-507.
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Murard, Elie & Rapoport, Hillel, 2019. "Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 12130, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    6. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Braun, Sebastian & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks," Ruhr Economic Papers 712, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Braun, Sebastian Till & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 11077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Salvador Traettino, 2022. "Migración forzada y finanzas públicas locales: Evidencia de los municipios en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20335, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Sascha O. Becker & Irena Grosfeld & Pauline Grosjean & Nico Voigtländer & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2020. "Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1430-1463, May.
    11. Benjamin Elsner & Jeff Concannon, 2020. "Immigration and Redistribution," Working Papers 202024, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    12. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Andreas Lichter & Max Löffler & Sebastian Siegloch, 2021. "The Long-Term Costs of Government Surveillance: Insights from Stasi Spying in East Germany," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 741-789.
    14. Braun, Sebastian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2017. "The local environment shapes refugee integration: Evidence from post-war Germany," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    15. Brülhart, Marius & Bucovetsky, Sam & Schmidheiny, Kurt, 2015. "Taxes in Cities," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1123-1196, Elsevier.
    16. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2021. "Immigration and the Future of the Welfare State in Europe," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 697(1), pages 120-147, September.
    17. Ulrich Hendel & Salmai Qari, 2014. "Immigration and Attitudes Towards Day Care," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 997-1029, November.
    18. Gerber, Anke & Nicklisch, Andreas & Voigt, Stefan, 2019. "The role of ignorance in the emergence of redistribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 239-261.
    19. Olivier Bargain & Victor Stephane & Jérôme Valette, 2022. "Another brick in the wall. Immigration and electoral preferences: Direct evidence from state ballots," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 1452-1477, November.
    20. Sandy Fréret & Denis Maguain, 2017. "The effects of agglomeration on tax competition: evidence from a two-regime spatial panel model on French data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(6), pages 1100-1140, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Taxation; Spending; Welfare state;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201814. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicolas Clifton (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/educdie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.