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Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Till Braun

    () (School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews)

  • Anica Kramer

    () (RWI)

  • Michael Kvasnicka

    () (Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg)

Abstract

This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Till Braun & Anica Kramer & Michael Kvasnicka, 2017. "Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201715, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
  • Handle: RePEc:san:wpecon:1715
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John DiNardo & David Card, 2000. "Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 360-367, May.
    2. Thomas K. Bauer & Sebastian Braun & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "The Economic Integration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post‐War Germany," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 998-1024, September.
    3. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2008. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1766-1797, December.
    4. Braun, Sebastian & Omar Mahmoud, Toman, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Postwar Germany," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(01), pages 69-108, March.
    5. Henderson, J V, 1974. "The Sizes and Types of Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 640-656, September.
    6. Braun, Sebastian & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2014. "Immigration and structural change: Evidence from post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 253-269.
    7. Konrad B. Burchardi & Tarek A. Hassan, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Social Ties: Evidence from German Reunification," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1219-1271.
    8. christoph Eder & Martin Halla, 2016. "The Long-lasting Shadow of the Allied Occupation of Austria on its Spatial Equilibrium," HiCN Working Papers 230, Households in Conflict Network.
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    13. Leah Platt Boustan & Price V. Fishback & Shawn Kantor, 2010. "The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets:American Cities during the Great Depression," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(4), pages 719-746, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population shock; locational fundamentals; agglomeration economies; regional migration; post-war Germany;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-

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