IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/374.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers

Author

Listed:
  • Becker, Sascha O.

    (Monash University and University of Warwick)

  • Grosfeld, Irena

    (Paris School of Economics)

  • Grosjean, Pauline

    (UNSW)

  • Voigtländer, Nico

    (UCLA)

  • Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina

    (Paris School of Economics)

Abstract

We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on investment in education. After World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education, Poles with a family history of forced migration are significantly more educated today. Descendants of forced migrants have on average one extra year of schooling, driven by a higher propensity to finish secondary or higher education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border and include fixed effects for the destination of migrants. As Kresy migrants were of the same ethnicity and religion as other Poles, we bypass confounding factors of other cases of forced migration. We show that labor market competition with natives and selection of migrants are also unlikely to drive our results. Survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in a mobile asset – human capital. The effects persist over three generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Becker, Sascha O. & Grosfeld, Irena & Grosjean, Pauline & Voigtländer, Nico & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2018. "Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 374, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:374
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/374-2018_becker.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian A. Jacob, 2004. "Public Housing, Housing Vouchers, and Student Achievement: Evidence from Public Housing Demolitions in Chicago," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 233-258, March.
    2. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2012. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Risk and Trust Attitudes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 645-677.
    3. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    4. Sandra Sequeira & Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2017. "Migrants and the Making of America: The Shortand Long-Run Effects of Immigration During the Age of Mass Migration," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(03), pages 30-34, October.
    5. Pamela Jakiela & Owen Ozier, 2019. "The Impact of Violence on Individual Risk Preferences: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 547-559, July.
    6. Grosfeld, Irena & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2015. "Cultural vs. economic legacies of empires: Evidence from the partition of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 55-75.
    7. Eric Chyn, 2018. "Moved to Opportunity: The Long-Run Effects of Public Housing Demolition on Children," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(10), pages 3028-3056, October.
    8. Eliakim Katz & Hillel Rapoport, 2005. "On human capital formation with exit options," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 267-274, June.
    9. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Gianandrea Lanzara, 2012. "Educational achievement of second-generation immigrants: an international comparison [The economic situation of first and second-generation immigrants in France, Germany and the United Kingdom]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 143-185.
    10. Editors, 2016. "16 and all that," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(1), pages 3-4, March.
    11. Thomas K. Bauer & Sebastian Braun & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "The Economic Integration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post‐War Germany," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 998-1024, September.
    12. David Card, 1990. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 43(2), pages 245-257, January.
    13. Fersterer, Josef & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2003. "Smoking, discount rates, and returns to education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 561-566, December.
    14. Braun, Sebastian & Omar Mahmoud, Toman, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Postwar Germany," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 69-108, March.
    15. Cassar, Alessandra & Healy, Andrew & von Kessler, Carl, 2017. "Trust, Risk, and Time Preferences After a Natural Disaster: Experimental Evidence from Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 90-105.
    16. Murard, Elie & Sakalli, Seyhun Orcan, 2018. "Mass Refugee Inflow and Long-Run Prosperity: Lessons from the Greek Population Resettlement," IZA Discussion Papers 11613, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Fabian Waldinger, 2016. "Bombs, Brains, and Science: The Role of Human and Physical Capital for the Creation of Scientific Knowledge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 811-831, December.
    18. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    19. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    20. Chie Hanaoka & Hitoshi Shigeoka & Yasutora Watanabe, 2018. "Do Risk Preferences Change? Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 298-330, April.
    21. Oded Galor & Ömer Özak, 2016. "The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3064-3103, October.
    22. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Platt Boustan & Katherine Eriksson, 2014. "A Nation of Immigrants: Assimilation and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 467-506.
    23. George J. Borjas & Joan Monras, 2017. "The labour market consequences of refugee supply shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 361-413.
    24. Emi Nakamura & Jósef Sigurdsson & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Gift of Moving: Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1557-1592.
    25. Bruce Sacerdote, 2012. "When the Saints Go Marching Out: Long-Term Outcomes for Student Evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 109-135, January.
    26. Samuel Bazzi & Arya Gaduh & Alexander D. Rothenberg & Maisy Wong, 2016. "Skill Transferability, Migration, and Development: Evidence from Population Resettlement in Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2658-2698, September.
    27. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    28. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01157572 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Andrea Ichino & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2004. "The Long-Run Educational Cost of World War II," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(1), pages 57-86, January.
    30. Fisman, Raymond & Jakiela, Pamela & Kariv, Shachar, 2015. "How did distributional preferences change during the Great Recession?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 84-95.
    31. Mayra Buvinić & Monica Das Gupta & Olga N. Shemyakina, 2014. "Armed Conflict, Gender, and Schooling," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 311-319.
    32. repec:ces:ifodic:v:15:y:2017:i:3:p:50000000000049 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2013. "The Economics of Forced Migration," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(6), pages 772-784, June.
    34. Maarten J. Voors & Eleonora E. M. Nillesen & Philip Verwimp & Erwin H. Bulte & Robert Lensink & Daan P. Van Soest, 2012. "Violent Conflict and Behavior: A Field Experiment in Burundi," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 941-964, April.
    35. Melissa Dell, 2010. "The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 1863-1903, November.
    36. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg & Jan Stuhler, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 31-56, Fall.
    37. Semrad, Alexandra, 2015. "Immigration and educational spillovers: evidence from Sudeten German expellees in post-war Bavaria," Discussion Papers in Economics 24851, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    38. Erik Hornung, 2014. "Immigration and the Diffusion of Technology: The Huguenot Diaspora in Prussia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 84-122, January.
    39. Alessandra Cassar & Pauline Grosjean & Sam Whitt, 2013. "Legacies of violence: trust and market development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 285-318, September.
    40. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
    41. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    42. David Card & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigration Economics by George J. Borjas: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1333-1349, December.
    43. Paola Giuliano & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2014. "Growing up in a Recession," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 787-817.
    44. Brenner, Reuven & Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1981. "The Economics of the Diaspora: Discrimination and Occupational Structure," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(3), pages 517-534, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Murard, Elie, 2023. "Long-term effects of the 1923 mass refugee inflow on social cohesion in Greece," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Robin Rampaer & David Raymaekers, 2021. "One-minute earthquake, years of patience: Evidence from Mexico on the effect of earthquake exposure on time preference," Working Papers CEB 21-015, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Arnaud Chevalier & Benjamin Elsner & Andreas Lichter & Nico Pestel, 2018. "Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 994, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Jetter, Michael & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Roth, Sebastian, 2020. "Becoming sensitive: Males’ risk and time preferences after the 2008 financial crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Haile, Kaleab K. & Nillesen, Eleonora & Tirivayi, Nyasha, 2020. "Impact of formal climate risk transfer mechanisms on risk-aversion: Empirical evidence from rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Booth, Alison & Meng, Xin & Fan, Elliott & Zhang, Dandan, 2022. "The direct and intergenerational behavioural consequences of a socio-political upheaval," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 931-958.
    9. Sepahvand, Mohammad H & Shahbazian, Roujman & Bali Swain, Ranjula, 2018. "Does revolution change risk attitudes? Evidence from Burkina Faso," Working Paper Series 2019:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Castillo, Jose Gabriel & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2023. "The unintended consequences of confinement: Evidence from the rural area in Guatemala," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    11. Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II [The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 481-507.
    12. Belmonte, Alessandro & Di Lillo, Armando, 2018. "The Legacy of Forced Assimilation Policies:Entry Barriers in the Labor Market and Anti-German Sentiments in South Tyrol," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 379, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    13. Booth, Alison & Meng, Xin & Fan, Elliott & Zhang, Dandan, 2018. "The Intergenerational Behavioural Consequences of a Socio-Political Upheaval," CEPR Discussion Papers 13354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Chen, Shuo & Xie, Bin, 2020. "Institutional Discrimination and Assimilation: Evidence from the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882," IZA Discussion Papers 13647, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Coutts, Alexander, 2024. "The age of consequences: Unraveling conflict's impact on social preferences, norm enforcement, and risk-taking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 48-67.
    16. Bellucci, Davide & Fuochi, Giulia & Conzo, Pierluigi, 2020. "Childhood exposure to the Second World War and financial risk taking in adult life," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Fang, Guanfu & Li, Wei & Zhu, Ying, 2022. "The shadow of the epidemic: Long-term impacts of meningitis exposure on risk preference and behaviors," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Manian, Shanthi, 2021. "Conflict and risky health behavior: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Christian Ochsner, 2017. "Dismantled once, diverged forever? A quasi-natural experiment of Red Army misdeeds in post-WWII Europe," ifo Working Paper Series 240, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. Delphine Boutin & Laurène Petifour & Haris Megzari, 2022. "Instability of preferences due to Covid-19 Crisis and emotions: a natural experiment from urban Burkina Faso," Working Papers hal-03623601, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poland; Forced Migration; Uprootedness; Human Capital JEL Classification: N33; N34; D74; I25;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.