IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp12047.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The 2015 European Refugee Crisis and Residential Housing Rents in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Kürschner Rauck, Kathleen

    (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

  • Kvasnicka, Michael

    (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

Abstract

We study the impact of the 2015 mass arrival of refugees to Germany on residential housing rents. Using unique data on end of year county-level refugee populations and data on monthly offers of flats for rent from Germany's leading online property broker Immobilienscout24, we find strong evidence in difference-in-differences regressions for a negative effect of refugee immigration on rental prices. Adverse price effects, however, appear attenuated in the heyday of the crisis in late 2015 if a larger share of refugees is housed in decentralized accommodation. Various robustness checks corroborate our findings, including IV regressions that exploit for identification information on the pre-crisis location of refugee reception centers and group quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Kürschner Rauck, Kathleen & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2018. "The 2015 European Refugee Crisis and Residential Housing Rents in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12047, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp12047.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Bauer & Sven Feuerschütte & Michael Kiefer & Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Torsten Schmidt & Lars-Holger Wilke, 2013. "Ein hedonischer Immobilienpreisindex auf Basis von Internetdaten: 2007–2011," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 7(1), pages 5-30, August.
    2. Libertad Gonzalez & Francesc Ortega, 2013. "Immigration And Housing Booms: Evidence From Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 37-59, February.
    3. Saiz, Albert, 2007. "Immigration and housing rents in American cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 345-371, March.
    4. Zeno Adams & Kristian Blickle, 2018. "Immigration And The Displacement of Incumbent Households," Working Papers on Finance 1809, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    5. Stephan Huber & Christoph Rust, 2016. "Calculate travel time and distance with OpenStreetMap data using the Open Source Routing Machine (OSRM)," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 16(2), pages 416-423, June.
    6. Kathrin Degen & Andreas Fischer, 2017. "Immigration and Swiss House Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 153(I), pages 15-36, March.
    7. Accetturo, Antonio & Manaresi, Francesco & Mocetti, Sauro & Olivieri, Elisabetta, 2014. "Don't stand so close to me: The urban impact of immigration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    8. Ather H. Akbari & Yigit Aydede, 2012. "Effects of immigration on house prices in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(13), pages 1645-1658, May.
    9. Sona Kalantaryan, 2013. "Housing Market Responses to Immigration; Evidence from Italy," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/83, European University Institute.
    10. Ibrahim Al Hawarin & Ragui Assaad & Ahmed Elsayed, 2018. "Migration Shocks and Housing: Evidence from the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan," Working Papers 1213, Economic Research Forum, revised 28 Jun 2018.
    11. Ulf Liebe & Jürgen Meyerhoff & Maarten Kroesen & Caspar Chorus & Klaus Glenk, 2018. "From welcome culture to welcome limits? Uncovering preference changes over time for sheltering refugees in Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, August.
    12. Balkan, Binnur & Tok, Elif Ozcan & Torun, Huzeyfe & Tumen, Semih, 2018. "Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 11611, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Kjellander, Josef & Nilsson, Viktor & van Vuuren, Aico, 2018. "The Impact of the Announcement of Temporary Building Sites for Refugees on House Prices in Gothenburg," IZA Discussion Papers 11726, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Semih Tumen, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Turkey," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 456-460, May.
    15. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    16. Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2012. "The effects of immigration on US wages and rents: a general equilibrium approach," Chapters, in: Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot & Mediha Sahin (ed.), Migration Impact Assessment, chapter 3, pages 107-146, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Albert Saiz, 2003. "Room in the Kitchen for the Melting Pot: Immigration and Rental Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 502-521, August.
    18. Albert Saiz & Susan Wachter, 2011. "Immigration and the Neighborhood," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 169-188, May.
    19. E Latif, 2015. "Immigration and Housing Rents in Canada: A Panel Data Analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 20(1), pages 91-108, March.
    20. Breidenbach Philipp & Eilers Lea, 2018. "RWI-GEO-GRID: Socio-economic data on grid level," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 238(6), pages 609-616, October.
    21. Mussa, Abeba & Nwaogu, Uwaoma G. & Pozo, Susan, 2017. "Immigration and housing: A spatial econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 13-25.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Breidenbach Philipp & Schaffner Sandra, 2020. "Real estate data for Germany (RWI-GEO-RED)," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 401-416, September.
    2. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Albarosa, Emanuele & Elsner, Benjamin, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 15850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Christopher Prömel, 2022. "Belonging or Estrangement – The European Refugee Crisis and Its Effects on Immigrant Identity," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1160, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Umut Unal & Bernd Hayo & Isil Erol, 2022. "The Effect of Immigration on the German Housing Market," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202238, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2022. "Incumbency and expectations of fiscal rule compliance: Evidence from surveys of German policy makers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Felix Stips & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2020. "The impact of co-national networks on asylum seekers’ employment: Quasi-experimental evidence from Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Eren Aydin & Kathleen Kürschner Rauck, 2023. "Low-emission zones, modes of transport and house prices: evidence from Berlin’s commuter belt," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(5), pages 1847-1895, October.
    10. Prömel, Christopher, 2021. "Belonging or estrangement: The European refugee crisis and its effects on immigrant identity," Discussion Papers 2021/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Hennig, Jakob, 2021. "Neighborhood quality and opposition to immigration: Evidence from German refugee shelters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Emanuele Albarosa & Benjamin Elsner, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1183, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    13. Albarosa, E. & Elsner, B., 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    14. Giesselmann, Marco & Brady, David & Naujoks, Tabea, 2021. "The social consequences of the increase in refugees to Germany 2015-2016," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship Inequality and Social Policy SP I 2021-502, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    15. Deole, Sumit S. & Huang, Yue, 2020. "How do new immigration flows affect existing immigrants? Evidence from the refugee crisis in Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 579, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Albarosa,Emanuele & Elsner,Benjamin, 2022. "Forced Migration, Social Cohesion and Conflict: The 2015 Refugee Inflow in Germany," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9913, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2023. "Decomposing the impact of immigration on house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Kathleen Kuerschner, 2016. "Immigration and Rental Prices of Residential Housing: Evidence from the Fall of the Berlin Wall," ERES eres2016_109, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2019. "The Effects of Immigration on Local Housing Markets," Working Papers in Economics 19/07, University of Waikato.
    4. Umut Unal & Bernd Hayo & Isil Erol, 2022. "The Effect of Immigration on the German Housing Market," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202238, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Marcus H. Böhme & Sarah Kups, 2017. "The economic effects of labour immigration in developing countries: A literature review," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 335, OECD Publishing.
    6. Kürschner, Kathleen, 2017. "Immigration and Rental Prices of Residential Housing: Evidence from the Fall of the Berlin Wall," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168092, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Fabienne Helfer & Volker Grossmann & Aderonke Osikominu, 2023. "How does immigration affect housing costs in Switzerland?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-31, December.
    8. Fabienne Helfer & Volker Grossmann & Aderonke Osikominu, 2023. "How does immigration affect housing costs in Switzerland?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-31, December.
    9. Mussa, Abeba & Nwaogu, Uwaoma G. & Pozo, Susan, 2017. "Immigration and housing: A spatial econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 13-25.
    10. Accetturo, Antonio & Manaresi, Francesco & Mocetti, Sauro & Olivieri, Elisabetta, 2014. "Don't stand so close to me: The urban impact of immigration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    11. Chang, Zheng, 2018. "Immigration and the Neighborhood: New Evidence from Recent Immigrants in Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 549-566.
    12. Kathrin Degen & Andreas M. Fischer, 2017. "Immigration and Swiss House Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(1), pages 15-36, January.
    13. Sharpe, Jamie, 2019. "Re-evaluating the impact of immigration on the U.S. rental housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 14-34.
    14. Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio & Santos, Rafael J., 2018. "Unexpected guests: The impact of internal displacement inflows on rental prices in Colombian host cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 289-309.
    15. Lokman Gunduz & Ismail H. Genc & Ahmet Faruk Aysan, 2022. "Buying Citizenship: A Boon to District-Level House Prices in Istanbul," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4-5), pages 697-712, July.
    16. Nathan, Max, 2013. "The Wider Economic Impacts of High-Skilled Migrants: A Survey of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 7653, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Fischer, Andreas M., 2012. "Immigrant language barriers and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 389-395.
    18. Dr Max Nathan, 2013. "The wider economic impacts of high-skilled migrants: a survey of the literature," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 413, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    19. Nathan, Max, 2013. "The Wider Economic Impacts of High-Skilled Migrants: A Survey of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 7653, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Steven Stillman & David C. Maré, 2008. "Housing Markets and Migration: Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers 08_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    refugee migration; housing rents; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12047. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.