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The Effect of Immigration on the German Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Umut Unal

    (Research Institute for Labour and Social Affairs (RILSA))

  • Bernd Hayo

    (Marburg University)

  • Isil Erol

    (Oezyegin University)

Abstract

This study provides evidence of the causal impact of immigration on German house prices, flat prices, and flat rents using an extensive dataset covering 382 administrative districts over the period 2004−2020. Employing a panel-data approach and a manually constructed past settlement instrument, we show that international migration has a significantly positive short-term effect on German flat prices and rents. House prices are not significantly affected. We estimate that an increase in international migration of 1% of the initial district population causes a hike in flat prices of up to 3% as well as a hike in flat rents of about 1%. The increase in flat prices is more than twice as high as this at the lower end of the market, whereas the flat rental market demonstrates a more linear response. We also discover that immigration’s impact on flat prices and rents does not significantly differ across rural and urban areas within the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Umut Unal & Bernd Hayo & Isil Erol, 2022. "The Effect of Immigration on the German Housing Market," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202238, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Umut Unal & Bernd Hayo & Isil Erol, 2022. "Housing Market Convergence: Evidence from Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202244, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Housing prices; Rents; Instrumental variable; IV quantile regression; German housing market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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