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Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms

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  • Peter Bednarek
  • Daniel Marcel te Kaat
  • Chang Ma
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

We study how an aggregate bank flow shock impacts German cities' GDP growth depending on the state of their local real estate markets. Identification exploits a policy framework assigning refugees to cities on a quasi-random basis and variation in non-developable area for the construction of a measure of exposure to local real estate market tightness. We estimate that the German cities most exposed to real estate market pressure grew 2.5-5.0 percentage points more than the least exposed ones, cumulatively, during the 2009-2014 period. Bank flow shocks shift credit to firms with more collateral. More collateral also leads firms to hire and invest more in response to these shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Bednarek & Daniel Marcel te Kaat & Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci, 2020. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," NBER Working Papers 26820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26820
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    3. Umut Unal & Bernd Hayo & Isil Erol, 2022. "The Effect of Immigration on the German Housing Market," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202238, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Li, Qianwen & Qian, Tingyu & Wang, Hui & Sun, Chuanwang, 2025. "Exploring the value of green: The impact factors on China's second-hand green housing prices based on geographically weighted Lasso regressions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    6. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Mercado, 2025. "Taming the “Capital Flows-Credit Nexus”: A Sectoral Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 373-429, April.
    7. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn, 2022. "The urgency to borrow in the interbank market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    8. Martin Groiss & Nicolas Syrichas, 2025. "Monetary Policy, Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0058, Berlin School of Economics.
    9. Doerr, Sebastian, 2018. "Collateral, Reallocation, and Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Boom," MPRA Paper 106163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.
    11. Daniel Carvalho, 2021. "Revisiting the relationship between cross‐border capital flows and credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 179-218, August.
    12. Bednarek, Peter & Franke, Günter, 2024. "Dynamics of probabilities of default," Discussion Papers 32/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2020. "Central bank funding and credit risk-taking," Discussion Papers 36/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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