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Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms

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  • Peter Bednarek
  • Daniel Marcel te Kaat
  • Chang Ma
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

We study how an aggregate bank flow shock impacts German cities' GDP growth depending on the state of their local real estate markets. Identification exploits a policy framework assigning refugees to cities on a quasi-random basis and variation in non-developable area for the construction of a measure of exposure to local real estate market tightness. We estimate that the German cities most exposed to real estate market pressure grew 2.5-5.0 percentage points more than the least exposed ones, cumulatively, during the 2009-2014 period. Bank flow shocks shift credit to firms with more collateral. More collateral also leads firms to hire and invest more in response to these shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Bednarek & Daniel Marcel te Kaat & Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci, 2020. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," NBER Working Papers 26820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26820
    Note: CF EFG IFM ME PE
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Doerr, 2020. "Housing booms, reallocation and productivity," BIS Working Papers 904, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2020. "Central bank funding and credit risk-taking," Discussion Papers 36/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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