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Holes in the Dike: The Global Savings Glut, U.S. House Prices, and the Long Shadow of Banking Deregulation

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Hoffmann
  • Iryna Stewen

Abstract

We show how capital inflows into and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the recent boom and bust in U.S. housing prices. Interstate banking deregulation during the 1980s cast a long shadow: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to aggregate U.S. capital inflows during 1997–2012. Capital inflows relaxed the value-at-risk constraints of geographically diversified (“integrated”) U.S. banks more than those of local banks. Therefore, integrated banks absorbed a larger share of capital inflows and expanded mortgage lending more. This drove up housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Stewen, 2020. "Holes in the Dike: The Global Savings Glut, U.S. House Prices, and the Long Shadow of Banking Deregulation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 2013-2055.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:18:y:2020:i:4:p:2013-2055.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvz045
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    Cited by:

    1. Catão, Luís A.V. & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2021. "Capital account liberalization and the composition of bank liabilities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016," Staff Reports 924, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    4. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "The Distribution of Household Debt in the United States, 1950-2019," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 015, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    5. Elena Carletti & Steven Ongena & Jan-Peter Siedlarek & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2019. "The Impact of Stricter Merger Control on Bank Mergers and Acquisitions. Too-Big-To-Fail and Competition," Working Papers 16-14R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Christiane Kneer & Alexander Raabe, 2019. "Tracking foreign capital: the effect of capital inflows on bank lending in the UK," Bank of England working papers 804, Bank of England.
    7. Beck, Anne & Doerr, Sebastian, 2023. "The financial origins of regional inequality," CEPR Discussion Papers 18685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Torsten Ehlers & Mathias Hoffmann & Alexander Raabe, 2020. "Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized," BIS Working Papers 897, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Boddin, Dominik & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & Ma, Chang & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2025. "Portfolio flows and household portfolios," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    10. Hoffmann, Mathias & Maslov, Egor & Sørensen, Bent E., 2022. "Small firms and domestic bank dependence in Europe's great recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Alina Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike Steins, 2025. "The Distribution of Household Debt in the United States, 1950-2022," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 57, July.
    12. Carletti, Elena & Ongena, Steven & Siedlarek, Jan-Peter & Spagnolo, Giancarlo, 2021. "The impacts of stricter merger legislation on bank mergers and acquisitions: Too-Big-To-Fail and competition," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    13. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Peter Bednarek & Daniel Marcel te Kaat & Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles:Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 5077-5134.
    15. Mathias Hoffmann & Lilia Ruslanova, 2020. "Softening the blow: U.S. state-level banking deregulation and sectoral reallocation after the China trade shock," ECON - Working Papers 365, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Apr 2021.
    16. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2021. "Lender-specific mortgage supply shocks and macroeconomic performance in the United States," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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