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Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation

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  • Stewen, Iryna
  • Hoffmann, Mathias

Abstract

We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding shock for US wide banks: different from local banks, these banks held a geographically diversified portfolio of mortgages which allowed them to tap the global demand for safe assets by issuing private-label safe assets backed by the country-wide US housing market. This, in turn, allowed them to expand mortgage lending and lower interest rates, driving up housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Stewen, Iryna & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2015. "Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112834, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:112834
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    2. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016," Staff Reports 924, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Luís A.V. Catão & Daniel Marcel te Kaat, 2018. "Capital Account Liberalization and the Composition of Bank Liabilities," Working Papers REM 2018/53, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Torsten Ehlers & Mathias Hoffmann & Alexander Raabe, 2020. "Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized," BIS Working Papers 897, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Bednarek, Peter & Ma, Chang & Rebucci, Alessandro & Te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2019. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 14187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Elena Carletti & Steven Ongena & Jan-Peter Siedlarek & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2019. "The Impact of Stricter Merger Control on Bank Mergers and Acquisitions. Too-Big-To-Fail and Competition," Working Papers 201614R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Carletti, Elena & Ongena, Steven & Siedlarek, Jan-Peter & Spagnolo, Giancarlo, 2020. "The Impacts of Stricter Merger Legislation on Bank Mergers and Acquisitions: Too-Big-To-Fail and Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 14449, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Alexander Raabe & Christiane Kneer, 2019. "Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK," IHEID Working Papers 10-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General

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