IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbardp/rdp2016-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Housing Prices, Mortgage Interest Rates and the Rising Share of Capital Income in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Gianni La Cava

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Piketty (2014) documents how the share of aggregate income going to capital in the United States has risen in the post-war era. Rognlie (2015) has since shown that this is largely due to the housing sector. I explore the determinants of the secular rise in the share of housing capital income (or 'rental income') in the US economy. I first decompose the aggregate national accounts by geographic region and also by type of housing. I then exploit variation across US states in factors that could explain housing capital income, such as interest rates, housing prices and income growth. I show that the long-run increase in the aggregate share of housing capital income is mainly due to higher imputed rental income going to owner-occupiers. I also find evidence that the rise in the share of housing capital income over recent decades reflects a combination of: 1) lower real interest rates; 2) lower consumer price inflation; and 3) constraints on the supply of new housing in some large US cities. In effect, I argue that the fall in nominal interest rates over the 1980s and 1990s raised the demand for housing and pushed up housing prices and rents (relative to non-housing prices) in supply-constrained areas. I estimate that the long-term decline in interest rates can explain more than half the increase in the share of nominal income spent on housing since the early 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianni La Cava, 2016. "Housing Prices, Mortgage Interest Rates and the Rising Share of Capital Income in the United States," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2016-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2016/pdf/rdp2016-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    2. Jith Jayaratne & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 639-670.
    3. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    4. Christian A. L. Hilber & Wouter Vermeulen, 2016. "The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices in England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 358-405, March.
    5. Liangliang Jiang & Ross Levine & Chen Lin, 2016. "Competition and Bank Opacity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1911-1942.
    6. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    7. Borri, Nicola & Reichlin, Pietro, 2018. "The housing cost disease," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 106-123.
    8. Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(3), pages 1255-1310.
    9. Randall S. Kroszner & Philip E. Strahan, 1999. "What Drives Deregulation? Economics and Politics of the Relaxation of Bank Branching Restrictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1437-1467.
    10. Robert H. Frank, 2005. "Positional Externalities Cause Large and Preventable Welfare Losses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 137-141, May.
    11. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2015. "New Theoretical Perspectives on the Distribution of Income and Wealth among Individuals: Part IV: Land and Credit," NBER Working Papers 21192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008. "On the User Cost and Homeownership," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.
    13. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    14. Tara Rice & Philip E. Strahan, 2010. "Does Credit Competition Affect Small‐Firm Finance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 861-889, June.
    15. Kerr, William R. & Nanda, Ramana, 2009. "Democratizing entry: Banking deregulations, financing constraints, and entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 124-149, October.
    16. Garner, Thesia I. & Verbrugge, Randal, 2009. "Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 172-192, September.
    17. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    18. David Genesove, 2003. "The Nominal Rigidity of Apartment Rents," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 844-853, November.
    19. Morris A. Davis & Andreas Lehnert & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "The Rent‐Price Ratio For The Aggregate Stock Of Owner‐Occupied Housing," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(2), pages 279-284, June.
    20. Carrillo, Paul E. & Early, Dirk W. & Olsen, Edgar O., 2014. "A panel of interarea price indices for all areas in the United States 1982–2012," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 81-93.
    21. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    22. Sandra E. Black & Philip E. Strahan, 2002. "Entrepreneurship and Bank Credit Availability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2807-2833, December.
    23. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    24. Sommer, Kamila & Sullivan, Paul & Verbrugge, Randal, 2013. "The equilibrium effect of fundamentals on house prices and rents," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 854-870.
    25. Luci Ellis, 2006. "Housing and Housing Finance: The View from Australia and Beyond," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    26. Luci Ellis & Kathryn Smith, 2010. "The Global Upward Trend in the Profit Share," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 231-256.
    27. Odran Bonnet & Pierre-Henri Bono & Guillaume Chapelle & Etienne Wasmer, 2014. "Does housing capital contribute to inequality? A comment on Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2014-07, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
    28. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share: Accumulation or Scarcity?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    29. David N. Weil, 2015. "Capital and Wealth in the Twenty-First Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 34-37, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Borri & Pietro Reichlin, 2021. "Optimal Taxation with Home Ownership and Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 64-84, April.
    2. Edward Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2018. "The Economic Implications of Housing Supply," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-30, Winter.
    3. Ross Kendall & Peter Tulip, 2018. "The Effect of Zoning on Housing Prices," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. John Simon & Tahlee Stone, 2017. "The Property Ladder after the Financial Crisis: The First Step is a Stretch but Those Who Make It Are Doing OK," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Avner Offer, 2017. "The market turn: from social democracy to market liberalism," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1051-1071, November.
    6. Edmond Berisha & John Meszaros & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Income Inequality and House Prices across US States," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_018, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    7. Declan Trott & Leo Vance, 2018. "Adjusting the Australian Labour Share for Depreciation, Housing and Other Factors, 1960–2016," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(4), pages 412-428, December.
    8. David Albouy & Gabriel Ehrlich & Yingyi Liu, 2016. "Housing Demand, Cost-of-Living Inequality, and the Affordability Crisis," NBER Working Papers 22816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Tianjiao & Levine, Ross & Lin, Chen & Wei, Lai, 2020. "Bank deregulation and corporate risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Popov, Alexander & Zaharia, Sonia, 2019. "Credit market competition and the gender gap in labor force participation: Evidence from local markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 25-59.
    3. Kandilov, Ivan T. & Leblebicioğlu, Asli & Petkova, Neviana, 2016. "The impact of banking deregulation on inbound foreign direct investment: Transaction-level evidence from the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 138-159.
    4. Berger, Allen N. & Chen, Ruiyuan (Ryan) & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane, 2020. "Who wins and who loses from bank geographic deregulation? Analysis of financially constrained and unconstrained firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Jeffrey J. Burks & Christine Cuny & Joseph Gerakos & João Granja, 2018. "Competition and voluntary disclosure: evidence from deregulation in the banking industry," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1511, December.
    6. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Amore, Mario Daniele & Schneider, Cédric & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2013. "Credit supply and corporate innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 835-855.
    8. Kose John & Qianru Qi & Jing Wang, 2020. "Bank Integration and the Market for Corporate Control: Evidence from Cross-State Acquisitions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3277-3294, July.
    9. Martin R. Goetz & Juan Carlos Gozzi, 2020. "Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States," International Finance Discussion Papers 1305, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Brown, Sarah & Gray, Daniel & Montagnoli, Alberto, 2019. "Credit supply shocks and household leverage: Evidence from the US banking deregulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 97-115.
    11. Chu, Yongqiang, 2018. "Banking deregulation and credit supply: Distinguishing the balance sheet and the competition channels," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 102-119.
    12. Boustanifar, Hamid, 2014. "Finance and employment: Evidence from U.S. banking reforms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 343-354.
    13. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Banking integration and house price co-movement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-25.
    14. Cornaggia, Jess & Mao, Yifei & Tian, Xuan & Wolfe, Brian, 2015. "Does banking competition affect innovation?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 189-209.
    15. Ọláyínká Oyèkọ́lá, 2021. "Finance and inequality in a panel of US States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2739-2795, November.
    16. D’Acunto, Francesco & Liu, Ryan & Pflueger, Carolin & Weber, Michael, 2018. "Flexible prices and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 46-68.
    17. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    18. Lin Tian & Liang Han, 2019. "How local is local? Evidence from bank competition and corporate innovation in U.S," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 289-324, January.
    19. Sa, Filipa, 2016. "The effect of foreign investors on local housing markets: evidence from the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86173, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Filipa Sa, 2016. "The Effect of Foreign Investors on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from the UK," Discussion Papers 1639, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; housing prices; housing supply; imputed rent; inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2016-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.