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House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience

  • John V. Duca
  • John Muellbauer
  • Anthony Murphy

Most US house price models break down in the mid-2000's, due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time home-buyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions--the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first time buyers--into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 121 (2011)
Issue (Month): 552 (05)
Pages: 533-551

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:121:y:2011:i:552:p:533-551
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  1. John V. Duca & Tao Wu, 2008. "Regulation and the neo-Wicksellian approach to monetary policy," Working Papers 0807, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
  4. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
  6. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," CEPR Discussion Papers 5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraint," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 50, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  9. John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  17. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Danielle DiMartino & John V. Duca, 2007. "The rise and fall of subprime mortgages," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(nov).
  19. Hamilton, Bruce W. & Schwab, Robert M., 1985. "Expected appreciation in urban housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 103-118, July.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
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  23. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
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