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Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation

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  • Mathias Hoffmann
  • Iryna Stewen

Abstract

We show how capital inflows into and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the recent boom and bust in U.S. housing prices. Interstate banking deregulation during the 1980s cast a long shadow: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to aggregate U.S. capital inflows during 1990-2012. Capital inflows relaxed the value-at-risk constraints of geographically diversified ('integrated') U.S. banks more than those of local banks. Therefore, integrated banks absorbed a larger share of capital inflows and expanded mortgage lending more. This drove up housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Stewen, 2016. "Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation," CAMA Working Papers 2016-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jith Jayaratne & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 639-670.
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    6. Randall S. Kroszner & Philip E. Strahan, 1999. "What Drives Deregulation? Economics and Politics of the Relaxation of Bank Branching Restrictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1437-1467.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    2. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016," Staff Reports 924, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Luís A.V. Catão & Daniel Marcel te Kaat, 2018. "Capital Account Liberalization and the Composition of Bank Liabilities," Working Papers REM 2018/53, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Torsten Ehlers & Mathias Hoffmann & Alexander Raabe, 2020. "Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized," BIS Working Papers 897, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Bednarek, Peter & Ma, Chang & Rebucci, Alessandro & Te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2019. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 14187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Elena Carletti & Steven Ongena & Jan-Peter Siedlarek & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2019. "The Impact of Stricter Merger Control on Bank Mergers and Acquisitions. Too-Big-To-Fail and Competition," Working Papers 201614R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Carletti, Elena & Ongena, Steven & Siedlarek, Jan-Peter & Spagnolo, Giancarlo, 2020. "The Impacts of Stricter Merger Legislation on Bank Mergers and Acquisitions: Too-Big-To-Fail and Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 14449, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Alexander Raabe & Christiane Kneer, 2019. "Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK," IHEID Working Papers 10-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; global imbalances; interstate banking deregulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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