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The price and quantity of residential land in the United States

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  • Morris A. Davis
  • Jonathan Heathcote

Abstract

We combine publicly available data from Freddie Mac, the Decennial Census of Housing, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct the first constant-quality aggregate price index for the stock of residential land in the United States. We uncover five main results: (a) since 1970, residential land prices have grown faster but (b) have also been twice as volatile as existing home prices; (c) averaged from 1970 to 2003, the nominal stock of residential land under 1-4 unit structures accounts for 38% of the market value of the housing stock and is equal to 50% of nominal annual GDP; (d) the real stock of residential land under 1-4 unit structures has increased an average of 0.6% per year since 1970; and (e) residential investment leads the price of residential land by three quarters. We also estimate that in 2003:Q3 the nominal value of the entire stock of residential land is the same as annual GDP. Finally, we show for the US data that the logarithms of the nominal price index for residential land, disposable income, and interest rates are cointegrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-37
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing - Prices; Real property;

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics

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