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Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states

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  • Marco Del Negro
  • Christopher Otrok

Abstract

The authors use a dynamic factor model estimated via Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s house price movements from state- or region-specific shocks, estimated on quarterly state-level data from 1986 to 2004. The authors find that movements in house prices historically have mainly been driven by the local (state- or region-specific) component. The recent period (2001–04) has been different, however: “Local bubbles” have been important in some states, but overall the increase in house prices is a national phenomenon. The authors then use a VAR to investigate the extent to which expansionary monetary policy is responsible for the common component in house price movements. The authors find the impact of policy shocks on house prices to be very small.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2005. "Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2005-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2013. "House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 1084-1106.
    2. Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle M. Edge, 2008. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic," 2008 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    4. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
    5. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, pages 125-164.
    6. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2008. "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 1253-1276.
    7. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    8. de Bandt, O. & Barhoumi, K. & Bruneau, C., 2010. "The international transmission of house price shocks," Working papers 274, Banque de France.
    9. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, pages 125-164.
    10. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Edward Chilcote & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Are Housing Prices, Household Debt, and Growth Sustainable?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_jan_06, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Robert Eisenbeis & W. Frame & Larry Wall, 2007. "An Analysis of the Systemic Risks Posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and An Evaluation of the Policy Options for Reducing Those Risks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, pages 75-99.
    12. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2012. "Discussant remarks on Filipa Sá, Pascal Towbin and Tomasz Wieladek’s paper "Capital inflows,financial innovation and housing booms"," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 76-82 Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Robert A. Eisenbeis & W. Scott Frame & Larry D. Wall, 2006. "An analysis of the systemic risks posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and an evaluation of the policy options for reducing those risks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    14. Dong Fu, 2007. "National, regional and metro-specific factors of the U.S. housing market," Working Papers 0707, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, "undated". "On China’s Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers 11/04, University of Nottingham, GEP.

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