On China’s Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
This paper investigates the dynamic and long-run relationships between monetary policy and asset prices in China using monthly data from June 2005 to September 2010. Johansen’s cointegration approach based on vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality test are used to identify the long-run relationships and directions of causality between asset prices and monetary variables. Empirical results show that monetary policies have little immediate effect on asset prices, suggesting that Chinese investors may be ‘irrational’ and ‘speculative’. Instead of running away from the market, investors rush to buy houses or shares whenever tightening monetary actions are taken. Such seemingly irrational and speculative behavior can be explained by various social and economic factors, including lack of investment channels, market imperfections, cultural traditions, urbanization and demographic changes. The results have two important policy implications. First, China’s central bank has not used and should not use interest rate alone to maintain macro-economic stability. Second, both monetary and non-monetary policies should be deployed when asset bubbles loom large to avoid devastating consequences when they burst.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (44) 0115 951 5620
Fax: (0115) 951 4159
Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/gep/index.aspx
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Taylor, 2007.
"Housing and Monetary Policy,"
07-003, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
- Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Economic Fluctuation, Macro Control, and Monetary Policy in the Transitional Chinese Economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 180-195, October.
- Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2005. "Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Working Paper 2005-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002.
"The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mehrotra, Aaron & Koivu, Tuuli & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2008. "McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Alan Greenspan, 2004. "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 33-40, May.
- Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "What has driven Chinese monetary policy since 1990? Investigating the People's bank's policy rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 847-859, September.
- Chengsi Zhang, 2010. "Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 40-55.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "BQDODRAWS: RATS procedure to implement Monte Carlo draws from a VAR with Blanchard-Quah factorization," Statistical Software Components RTS00030, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Blanchard and Quah AER 1989," Statistical Software Components RTZ00017, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2010.
"China’s monetary policy and the exchange rate,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
10/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Michael Geiger, 2008. "Instruments Of Monetary Policy In China And Their Effectiveness: 1994–2006," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 187, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"Monetary policy and asset price volatility,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
- Zhang, Wenlang, 2009. "China's monetary policy: Quantity versus price rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 473-484, September.
- Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guang Hua, 2002. "Household consumption and monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-52.
- Pan, Liu & Tao, Xie, 2006. "The monetary policy transmission in China: "Credit channel" and its limitations," Working Papers 22, Institute of Management Berlin (IMB), Berlin School of Economics and Law.
- Dan Luo & Shujie Yao, 2010. "World financial crisis and the rise of Chinese commercial banks: an efficiency analysis using DEA," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(19), pages 1515-1530.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2002.
"Financial Liberalisation and the Sensitivity of House Prices to Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
538, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2003. "Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 20-34, January.
- Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
- Bernard Laurens & Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China; Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:not:notgep:11/04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hilary Hughes)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.