IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitp/bdp2008_015.html

McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Koivu, Tuuli
  • Mehrotra, Aaron
  • Nuutilainen, Riikka

Abstract

This paper evaluates the usefulness of a McCallum monetary policy rule based on money supply for maintaining price stability in mainland China. We examine whether excess money relative to rulebased values provides information that improves the forecasting of price developments. The results suggest that our monetary variable helps in predicting both consumer and corporate goods price inflation, but the results for consumer prices depend on the forecasting period. Nevertheless, growth of the Chinese monetary base has tracked the McCallum rule quite closely. Moreover, results using a structural vector autoregression suggest that our measure of excess money supply could be used to identify monetary policy shocks in the Chinese economy

Suggested Citation

  • Koivu, Tuuli & Mehrotra, Aaron & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2008. "McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2008_015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212628/1/bofit-dp2008-015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koivu, Tuuli, 2008. "Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? : Studying credit demand in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
    4. Li-gang Liu & Wenlang Zhang, 2007. "A New Keynesian Model for Analysing Monetary Policy in Mainland China," Working Papers 0718, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    5. Goodhart, Charles & Boris Hofmann, 2002. "Asset Prices and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 88, Royal Economic Society.
    6. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
    8. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "What has driven Chinese monetary policy since 1990? Investigating the People's bank's policy rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 847-859, September.
    9. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
    10. Kornai, Janos, 1992. "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287766.
    11. Koivu, Tuuli, 2008. "Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying credit demand in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2008, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. Mr. Bernard J Laurens & Mr. Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 2007/014, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Japanese monetary policy, 1991-2001," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 89(Win), pages 1-31.
    14. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koivu, Tuuli & Mehrotra, Aaron & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2008. "McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy in transition : Essays on monetary policy transmission mechanism in China," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_046.
    3. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, 2011. "On China’s Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers 11/04, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    4. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    5. Ma, Yong, 2014. "Monetary policy based on nonlinear quantity rule: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-104.
    6. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.
    7. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
    8. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
    9. Koivu, Tuuli, 2009. "Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying credit demand in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 455-470, September.
    10. Koivu, Tuuli, 2010. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-325.
    12. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, January.
    13. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, 2013. "On China's monetary policy and asset prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 377-392, March.
    14. Petreski, Marjan & Jovanovic, Branimir, 2012. "New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy in China," MPRA Paper 40497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.
    16. Koivu, Tuuli, 2008. "Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? : Studying credit demand in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009. "Pooling versus Model Selection for Nowcasting with Many Predictors: An Application to German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/13, European University Institute.
    18. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    19. Joanne GUO, 2018. "China’s monetary policy since 1948," Journal of Economics Library, EconSciences Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 265-274, September.
    20. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 520-539, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2008_015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.