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Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying credit demand in China

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  • Koivu, Tuuli

Abstract

Abstract Chinese authorities have traditionally relied mainly on administrative and quantitative measures in conducting monetary policy, with interest rates playing a less prominent role. Additional support for this view resides in a number of earlier studies that have found that the impact of interest rates on the real economy has been miniscule. However, taking into account numerous reforms in the financial sector and more widely in the Chinese economy, interest rates may have gained some influence in the last few years. It is important to study the effectiveness of interest rates also in light of future reforms of the monetary policy tools in China. Whereas administrative policy measures were effective in guiding the behaviour of state-owned enterprises, the authorities may need to increase the use of more market-oriented monetary policy tools as the share of the economy in private and foreign ownership grows. We use a vector error correction model to study, within a credit demand framework, whether the impact of interest rates in China has become stronger over the last decade. Our results suggest that loan demand has indeed become more dependent on interest rates, albeit the channel from interest rates to the real economy is still weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Koivu, Tuuli, 2009. "Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying credit demand in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 455-470, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:455-470
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2014. "The Determinants of the Benchmark Interest Rates in China: A Discrete Choice Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-12, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    2. Ching-Chun Wei & Tzu-Wei Chuang, 2015. "Empirical Testing of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Transmission Channels in China," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 145-154, January.
    3. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    4. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    5. Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy in transition : Essays on monetary policy transmission mechanism in China," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_046, November.
    6. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    7. repec:wyi:journl:002133 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chen, Jeff Zeyun & Lobo, Gerald J. & Wang, Yanyan & Yu, Lisheng, 2013. "Loan collateral and financial reporting conservatism: Chinese evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4989-5006.
    9. Ma, Yong, 2014. "Monetary policy based on nonlinear quantity rule: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-104.
    10. Can An & Xiaofei Pan & Gary Tian, 2016. "How Does Corporate Governance Affect Loan Collateral? Evidence from Chinese SOEs and Non-SOEs," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 325-356, September.
    11. Tervala, Juha, 2014. "China, the Dollar Peg and U.S. Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 53223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chai, Shijun & Chen, Yang & Huang, Bihong & Ye, Dezhu, 2016. "Social networks and informal financial inclusion," RIEI Working Papers 2016-04, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Research Institute for Economic Integration.
    13. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    14. Angrick, Stefan & Naoyuki, Yoshino, 2018. "From window guidance to interbank rates : Tracing the transition of monetary policy in Japan and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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    Keywords

    China Monetary economics;

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