Money and price relationship in China
This paper investigates the effectiveness monetary policy by Granger causality tests in the two regimes of inflation and deflation, respectively. The surplus lag rolling estimation is applied to deal with the problem of the frequent structural changes in the Chinese monetary system. We found that the monetary policies have become less effective in stabilizing the price level in the deflation era that started from 1998. There is also empirical evidence to suggest that money was endogenous in China during the inflation period. This implies that the People's Bank of China had difficulty exercising the power of money supply to reduce inflation if the endogeneity was the result of the market behaviour. However, if the endogeneity was due to the government inflation-targeting rule, then there is no evidence to suggest that this rule has been effective for M0, M1 and M2 instruments, except for the M0 instrument during the inflation period of April 1990 to March 1995. Although it was found that money ceased to be endogenous in the deflation periods, it does not support the proposal of utilizing the money supply as a policy instrument, as we found that money is impotent in influencing price in the deflation regime. Our findings provide some empirical evidence to support the Chinese government adopting alternative policy instruments such as an active fiscal policy in the era of deflation.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 2 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCEA20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RCEA20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1997.
"Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence,"
NBER Working Papers
6307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996.
"Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?,"
NBER Working Papers
5845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, . "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998.
"Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?,"
NBER Working Papers
6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Burda, Maike M., 1997. "Modified Wald tests under nonregular conditions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 315-332, June.
- Ho, Mun S & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "Finding Cointegration Rank in High Dimensional Systems Using the Johansen Test: An Illustration Using Data Based Monte Carlo Simulations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 726-32, November.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001.
"Avoiding Liquidity Traps,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2000. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Departmental Working Papers 199925, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1999. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 99-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981.
"Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric results,"
NBER Working Papers
0789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 788-802, September.
- Tsang, Shu-ki & Ma, Yue, 2002. "Currency substitution and speculative attacks on a currency board system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-78, February.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
- Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994.
"Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag,"
Cahiers de recherche
9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
- Barro, Robert J, 1977.
"Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
- Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Zapata, Hector O. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1996.
"Monte Carlo Evidence On Cointegration And Causation,"
31690, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
- Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-98, May.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
- Mookerjee, Rajen & Peebles, Gavin, 1998. "Endogenous money in China: Evidence and insights on recent policies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 139-158.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:2:y:2004:i:3:p:225-247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.