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Finding Cointegration Rank in High Dimensional Systems Using the Johansen Test: An Illustration Using Data Based Monte Carlo Simulations

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  • Ho, Mun S
  • Sorensen, Bent E

Abstract

The authors examine the ability of the Johansen (1991) test to estimate the number of unit roots in high dimensional systems. They use data based Monte Carlo methods as a simple means of evaluating the validity of inference using asymptotic critical values. These simulations for a typical annual post-World War II dataset illustrate how the estimated number of unit roots change in a nonmonotone fashion with the dimension of the system, and with the number of lags in the VAR representation. The authors find that overparametrization in high dimensions is as bad as underparametrization. The Bayes information criteria outperforms the Akaike information criteria in their setup. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 78 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 726-32

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:78:y:1996:i:4:p:726-32
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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-35, June.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  3. Podivinsky, Jan M., 1998. "Testing misspecified cointegrating relationships," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-9, July.
  4. Bewley, Ronald & Yang, Minxian, 1995. "Testing for cointegration: the effects of mis-specifying the lag length," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-255.
  5. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1994. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 8, Stockholm School of Economics.
  6. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  7. Pitarakis, Jean-Yves & Gonzalo, Jesús, 1995. "Comovements in large systems," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 5825, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  8. Haug, A.A., 1992. "Tests for Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Papers 93-2, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
  10. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
  11. Boswijk, Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 1992. "Dynamic Specification and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 369-81, August.
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