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The Turkish Experience in Inflation Targeting: Uncertainties and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy

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Listed:
  • Z. Yejim Giirbiiz
  • Thomas Jobert
  • Ruhi Tuncer

Abstract

In January 2002, Turkey adopted implicit inflation targeting as monetary policy. The short-term interest rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey would serve as instrument and should influence the secondary market interest rate. Using a Vector Error Correction Model, we analyze the joint dynamics of these two rates. We show that the political or geopolitical uncertainties of the 2002 and 2003 (early elections, discussions on the opening of negotiations to joint the European Union and conflict in Iraq) have not affected the dynamics of the two rates. However, there has been a structural change in their long term dynamics at the end of 2004 because of the opening of negotiation Turkey to join the European Union. This event has temporarily reinforced the efficiency of the monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Z. Yejim Giirbiiz & Thomas Jobert & Ruhi Tuncer, 2008. "The Turkish Experience in Inflation Targeting: Uncertainties and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 127-146.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2008-4te
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Inflation Targeting; Interest Rate; Structural Change; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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