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Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Alain DeSerres
  • Alain Guay

Abstract

The authors examine the issue of lag-length selection in the context of a structural vector autoregression (VAR) and a vector error-correction model with long-run restrictions. First, they show that imposing long- run restrictions implies, in general, a moving-average (MA) component in the stationary multivariate representation. Then they examine the sensitivity of estimates of the permanent and transitory components to the selection of the lag length required in a VAR system to approximate this MA component. In summary, they find that using a lag structure that is too short can lead to a significant estimation bias of the permanent and transitory components. In addition, in comparing four different lag- selection criteria, they find that the Schwarz information criterion systematically underperforms relative to the other tests. More generally, as the order of the VAR that best approximates the data- generating process increases, the sequence-based tests (Wald, likelihood ratio) tend to provide more reliable results than the information-based tests (Akaike, Schwarz).

Suggested Citation

  • Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9510001
    Note: 39 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. St-Amant, P., 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Staff Working Papers 96-2, Bank of Canada.
    2. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2000. "La Utilización De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 18(38), pages 5-44, December.
    3. Claus, I., 1997. "A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States," Staff Working Papers 97-20, Bank of Canada.
    4. Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
    5. Martha Misas A & Enrique López E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45, December.
    6. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
    7. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po publications 2008-34, Sciences Po.
    8. Z. Yejim Giirbiiz & Thomas Jobert & Ruhi Tuncer, 2008. "The Turkish Experience in Inflation Targeting: Uncertainties and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 127-146.
    9. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1995. "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9504003, EconWPA.
    10. Mark S Astley & Anthony Garratt, 1998. "Exchange rates and prices: sources of sterling real exchange rate fluctuations 1973-94," Bank of England working papers 85, Bank of England.
    11. Murray, John & Schembri, Lawrence & St-Amant, Pierre, 2003. "Revisiting the case for flexible exchange rates in North America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 207-240, August.
    12. Steven Morling, 2002. "Output Adjustment in Developing Countries: a Structural Var Approach," Discussion Papers Series 307, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. Iris Claus, 1999. "Estimating potential output for New Zealand: a structural VAR approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Alain DeSerres, & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, "undated". "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy," Staff Working Papers 95-2, Bank of Canada.
    15. René Lalonde, 2000. "Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine," Staff Working Papers 00-19, Bank of Canada.
    16. St-Amant, P. & Tessier, D., 1998. "A Discussion of the Reliability of Results Obtained with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," Staff Working Papers 98-4, Bank of Canada.
    17. Kreiter, Zebulun & Paul, Tapas Kumar, 2010. "Deficit Financing and Inflation in Bangladesh: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," MPRA Paper 45981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Badarau-Semenescu, Cristina & Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane, 2010. "Politique économique et transmission des chocs dans la zone euro," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(1), pages 35-77, mars.
    19. Kasumovick, M., 1996. "Interpreting Money-Spply and Interest-Rate Sgocks as Monetary-Policy Shocks," Staff Working Papers 96-8, Bank of Canada.
    20. Lalonde, René, 1998. "Le PIB potentiel des États-Unis et ses déterminants : la productivité de la main-d'oeuvre et le taux d'activité," Staff Working Papers 98-13, Bank of Canada.
    21. St-Amant, P. & Tessier, D., 1998. "Tendance des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation et évolution comparative du taux de chômage au Canada et aux États-Unis," Staff Working Papers 98-3, Bank of Canada.
    22. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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