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VAR Modelling Approach and Cowles Commission Heritage

  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

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This paper examines the rise of the VAR approach from a historical perspective. It shows that the VAR approach arises as a systematic solution to the issue of 'model choice' bypassed by Cowles Commission (CC) researchers, and that the approach essentially inherits and enhances the CC legacy rather than abandons or opposes it. It argues that the approach is not so atheoretical as widely believed and that it helps reform econometrics by shifting research focus from measurement of given theories to identification/verification of data-coherent theories, and hence from confirmatory analysis to a mixture of confirmatory and exploratory analysis.

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Paper provided by Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 557.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp557
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  9. Thomas J. Sargent, 1975. "The observational equivalence of natural and unnatural rate theories of macroeconomics," Working Papers 48, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-57, May.
  11. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent," CESifo Working Paper Series 1434, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  14. Sent, Esther-Mirjam, 1997. "Sargent versus Simon: Bounded Rationality Unbound," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 323-38, May.
  15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  16. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "LSE and the British Approach to Time Series Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 108-28, January.
  17. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  18. Qin, Duo & Gilbert, Christopher L., 2001. "The Error Term In The History Of Time Series Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 424-450, April.
  19. Pagan, Adrian, 1987. " Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
  20. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
  21. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "The computational experiment: an econometric tool," Staff Report 178, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  22. Ta-Chung Liu, 1955. "A Simple Forecasting Model for the U.S. Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(3), pages 434-466, August.
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  24. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
  25. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  26. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and their uses," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  27. Esther-Mirjam Sent, 2002. "How (Not) to Influence People: The Contrary Tale of John F. Muth," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 291-320, Summer.
  28. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
  29. QIN, Duo, 1996. "BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS: The First Twenty Years," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 500-516, August.
  30. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2004. "An Interview With Christopher A. Sims," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 273-294, April.
  31. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
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