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Desequilibrios Reales en Colombia

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Enrique López Enciso

    ()

La evaluación de los desequilibrios en los mercados de bienes y de trabajo permite un diagnóstico preciso de la fase en que se encuentra una economía en el ciclo económico. En este artículo se utiliza la metodología de vectores autorregresivos estructurales (SVAR) aplicada a un único sistema de información conformado por las variables de producto real, precios al consumidor, tasa de desempleo y utilización de la capacidad instalada para construir la brecha de producto y de desempleo.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 181.

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  1. Enrique López & Martha Misas, . "Un Exámen Empírico de la Curva de Phillips en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 117, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "El Desempleo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 176, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," MPRA Paper 8622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, . "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Borradores de Economia 125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2000. "La Utilización De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  9. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso, 1998. "El Producto Potencial En Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo Var Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002538, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Luis Fernando Melo & Alvaro Riascos, . "El Producto Potencial utilizando el Filtro de Hodrick- Prescott con Parámetro de Suavización Variable y Ajustado por Inflación: Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 083, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
  12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  13. Willie Belton & Richard Cebula, 2000. "Capacity utilization rates and unemployment rates: are they complements or substitutes in warning about future inflation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532.
  14. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
  15. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Franz Hamann Salcedo, 1998. "Inflacion Basica. Una Estimacion Basada En Modelos Var Estructurales," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002848, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  16. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  17. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  18. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-77, November.
  19. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
  20. Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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