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Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • IREGUI, Ana María
  • MELO, Luis F.

Al finalizar la década anterior la actividad real en Colombia experimentó la más aguda recesión de los últimos 50 años. Para explicar este fenómeno, postulamos un modelo VAR estructural no-triangular que describe la dinámica de la producción, los precios, el desempleo y los salarios durante las últimas dos décadas. La evidencia sugiere que, en el largo plazo, la política monetaria ha sido neutral con respecto al producto y la desempleo, mientras que la principal razón para el incremento de éste último se explica por la forma en que se han determinado los salarios (formación de expectativas hacia atrás) y el incremento de los costos no salariales.

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File URL: http://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/1102/996
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Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO in its journal REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): (June)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003418
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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1999. "El producto potencial en Colombia: una estimación bajo var estructural," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, September.
  4. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
  6. Fabiani, Silvia & Locarno, Alberto & Oneto, Giampaolo & Sestito, Paolo, 2000. "The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case," Working Paper Series 0029, European Central Bank.
  7. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso, 0000. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002291, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Ana María Iregui & Jesús Otero, . "On the Dynamics of Unemployment in a Developing Economy: Colombia," Borradores de Economia 208, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, . "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR apporach," Working Papers 96-19, FEDEA.
  10. Algan, Yann, 2002. "How well does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France-United States comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-177, January.
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