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Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Ana María IREGUI
  • Luis F. MELO

Abstract

Al finalizar la década anterior la actividad real en Colombia experimentó la más aguda recesión de los últimos 50 años. Para explicar este fenómeno, postulamos un modelo VAR estructural no-triangular que describe la dinámica de la producción, los precios, el desempleo y los salarios durante las últimas dos décadas. La evidencia sugiere que, en el largo plazo, la política monetaria ha sido neutral con respecto al producto y la desempleo, mientras que la principal razón para el incremento de éste último se explica por la forma en que se han determinado los salarios (formación de expectativas hacia atrás) y el incremento de los costos no salariales.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María IREGUI & Luis F. MELO, 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003418
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    File URL: http://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/1102/996
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3085, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Case Colombian," Borradores de Economia 3629, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2020. "Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia: a search approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2431-2464, May.
    5. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3085, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Juan Jos� Echavarr�a & Enrique L�pez & Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodr�guez, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 9154, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural VAR; unemployment; monetary policy; wages; nonwage labour costs; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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