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Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?

Author

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

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  • IREGUI, Ana María
  • MELO, Luis F.

Abstract

Al finalizar la década anterior la actividad real en Colombia experimentó la más aguda recesión de los últimos 50 años. Para explicar este fenómeno, postulamos un modelo VAR estructural no-triangular que describe la dinámica de la producción, los precios, el desempleo y los salarios durante las últimas dos décadas. La evidencia sugiere que, en el largo plazo, la política monetaria ha sido neutral con respecto al producto y la desempleo, mientras que la principal razón para el incremento de éste último se explica por la forma en que se han determinado los salarios (formación de expectativas hacia atrás) y el incremento de los costos no salariales.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003418
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    File URL: http://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/1102/996
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
    3. Martha Misas A & Enrique López E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45, December.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003549, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Algan, Yann, 2002. "How well does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France-United States comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-177, January.
    6. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1999. "El producto potencial en Colombia: una estimación bajo var estructural," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, September.
    7. Fabiani, Silvia & Locarno, Alberto & Oneto, Gian Paolo & Sestito, Paolo, 2001. "The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 259-289, May.
    8. Ana Maria Iregui & Jesus Otero, 2003. "On the dynamics of unemployment in a developing economy: Colombia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 895-898.
    9. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa de Desempleo de Largo Plazo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 388, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Case Colombian," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003629, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 128-173, Diciembre.
    6. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2016. "Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia. A search approach," Borradores de Economia 969, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural VAR; unemployment; monetary policy; wages; nonwage labour costs; expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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