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Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el Siglo XX: El aporte de un VAR Estructural

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  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

El presente artículo describe el diseño y presenta la estimación y los principales resultados de un modelo "VAR estructural" de 4 variables (términos de intercambio, producto real, gasto público real y base monetaria nominal) para la economía colombiana con series de frecuencia anual del período 1925-1997. El modelo permitió construir las series del producto permanente de la economía y de su brecha (gap) cíclica. La ventaja del presente estudio frente a otros ya realizados se basa en la extensión de las series utilizadas, desde 1925 hasta 1997, lo cual nos permite una mayor aproximación al verdadero largo plazo, y en la utilización de una variable que, a juicio de los historiadores de la economía colombiana, ha sido de la mayor importancia para la explicación de su crecimiento y ciclos: La fluctuación de los términos de intercambio. Según sus resultados la principal fuente de crecimiento y fluctuaciones ha sido el conjunto de shocks provenientes del lado de la oferta agregada. Un análisis detallado de algunas coyunturas permite deducir que los resultados son pertinentes en algunos casos, pero anómalos en los casos en los cuales un extraordinario shock de términos de intercambio causó el movimiento cíclico.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2000. "Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el Siglo XX: El aporte de un VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 155, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:155
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    2. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1999. "El producto potencial en Colombia: una estimación bajo var estructural," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 365-395 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo, 2003. "Recent Behavior of Output, Unemployment, Wages and Prices in Colombia:What went Wrong?," Borradores de Economia 249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. María Cuenca Coral, Felipe Amaya, Bryan Castrillón, 2015. "La política monetaria y el crecimiento económico en Colombia, 1990-2010," REVISTA CIFE, UNIVERSIDAD SANTO TOMÁS, February.

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