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Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

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  • Schumacher, Christian

Abstract

This paper estimates and forecasts trend output and output gaps for the Euro area. In the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB), trend output is used to forecast a reference value for money. For this purpose, trend output must be forecasted as well. In this paper, a permanent-transitory decomposition (PT) based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex-ante forecasts of trend output are generated and to get an impression of the forecast uncertainty, bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take into consideration estimation uncertainty. The empirical uncertainty around trend output is relatively smaller than the uncertainty of the output gap. The absolute uncertainty of both indicators is quite large and questions their usefulness for monetary policy. When relying on such indicators monetary authorities should clarify this uncertainty.

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  • Schumacher, Christian, 2000. "Forecasting trend output in the Euro area," HWWA Discussion Papers 109, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26245
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    1. Weinert, Gunter & Wohlers, Eckhardt & Bruck, Christiane & Feldkord, Eva-Ulrike & Hinze, Jorg & Kirchesch, Kai & Matthies, Klaus, 2005. "Konjunktur 2005: Weltwirtschaft bleibt auf Expansionskurs - Deutschland hinkt hinterher," Report Series 26115, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    2. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    3. Weinert, Günter & Wohlers, Eckhardt & Brück, Christiane & Feldkord, Eva-Ulrike & Hinze, Jörg & Kirchesch, Kai & Matthies, Klaus, 2005. "Konjunktur 2005: Weltwirtschaft bleibt auf Expansionskurs - Deutschland hinkt hinterher," HWWA Reports 251, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    4. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Gradzewicz, Michal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2004. "Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach," MPRA Paper 28227, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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