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Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence


  • Boris Hofmann

    (University of Bonn)


This paper analyses the patterns of dynamic interaction between bank lending and property prices based on a sample of 20 countries using both time series and panel data techniques. Long-run causality appears to go from property prices to bank lending. This finding suggests that property price cycles, reflecting changing beliefs about future economic prospects, drive credit cycles, rather than excessive bank lending being the cause of property price bubbles. There is also evidence of short-run causality going in both directions, implying that a mutually reinforcing element in past boom-bust cycles in credit and property markets cannot be ruled out.

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  • Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:222003

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    Cited by:

    1. Kok, Christoffer & Gross, Marco & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "The impact of bank capital on economic activity - evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1888, European Central Bank.
    2. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2010. "Monetary policy and financial imbalances: facts and fiction," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 437-482, July.
    3. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions : a panel-VAR study," Working Paper Research 149, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Liang, Qi & Cao, Hua, 2007. "Property prices and bank lending in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 63-75, February.
    5. Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, "undated". "Liquidity, Inflation and Asset Prices in a Time-Varying Framework for the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 08/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
    7. Tamás Berki & Tibor Szendrei, 2017. "The cyclical position of housing prices – a VECM approach for Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2017/126, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    9. Anundsen, André K. & Jansen, Eilev S., 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 192-212.
    10. Alex van de Minne & Federica Teppa, 2015. "Demand and supply of mortgage credit," DNB Working Papers 486, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Ioannis Ganoulis & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "Financial liberalization and house price dynamics in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2671-2688.
    12. Sae Park & Doo Bahng & Yun Park, 2010. "Price Run-up in Housing Markets, Access to Bank Lending and House Prices in Korea," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 332-367, April.
    13. André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    14. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez, 2013. "Endogenous Bank Credit and Its Link to Housing in OECD Countries," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_750, Levy Economics Institute.

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