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Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach

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  • Gradzewicz, Michal
  • Kolasa, Marcin

Abstract

This article presents three estimates of the output gap, one using the production function method, and the other two by assessing the long-term product using cointegration relationships (based on the production function and on the hypothesis of permanent income). It also presents an analysis of time-relationships between the estimated output gaps and selected measures of inflation using the covariance of a VAR-type stochastic process. The methods employed yield different estimates of the output gap. The time paths of calculated gaps and the analysis of time relationships (conditional on the existence of relationship described by the Phillips curve and the possibility of using obtained gaps in it) allow the authors to conclude that there’s no inflationary pressure from the aggregate demand in the Polish economy, at least till the end of 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Gradzewicz, Michal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2004. "Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach," MPRA Paper 28227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2010. "Estimating Poland's Potential Output: A Production Function Approach," IMF Working Papers 2010/015, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Anna Michalek, 2010. "The Importance of Calculating the Potential Gross Domestic Product in the Context of the Taylor Rule," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 131-143.
    4. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2014. "Total factor productivity estimation for Polish manufacturing industry: A comparison of alternative methods," Working Paper Series 6714, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. Piotr Białowolski, 2005. "Produkt potencjalny w Polsce w latach 1993-2004 na podstawie funkcji produkcji," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 37-48.
    6. S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 31-60.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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