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Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach

  • Gradzewicz, Michal
  • Kolasa, Marcin

This article presents three estimates of the output gap, one using the production function method, and the other two by assessing the long-term product using cointegration relationships (based on the production function and on the hypothesis of permanent income). It also presents an analysis of time-relationships between the estimated output gaps and selected measures of inflation using the covariance of a VAR-type stochastic process. The methods employed yield different estimates of the output gap. The time paths of calculated gaps and the analysis of time relationships (conditional on the existence of relationship described by the Phillips curve and the possibility of using obtained gaps in it) allow the authors to conclude that there’s no inflationary pressure from the aggregate demand in the Polish economy, at least till the end of 2003.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28227/1/MPRA_paper_28227.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28227.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Publication status: Published in Bank i Kredyt 2.35(2004): pp. 14-30
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28227
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  1. Coenen, Guenter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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  5. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Jacques R. Artus, 1977. "Measures of Potential Output in Manufacturing for Eight Industrial Countries, 1955-78 (Estimation du potentiel de production relative au secteur manufacturier de huit pays industriels, 1955-78) (Medic," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 1-35, March.
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  15. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, March.
  16. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  18. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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  21. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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