Are Business Cycles All Alike In Europe?
We investigate whether business cycles are all alike computing the welfare costs of business cycles for European-Union (EU) as the solution of the problem proposed by Lucas (1987). Because these countries have a long tradition of integration and trade, it is a "natural experiment" to investigate how similar their welfare costs of business cycles are. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed welfare costs using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods, but focusing on the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Our results show that welfare costs are very different across EU countries and between US and EU countries, and thus it is a strong evidence that business cycles are not alike in Europe.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil|
Phone: 55 21 3674 7952
Web page: http://www.anpec.org.br
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1, September.
- John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989.
"Why is Consumption So Smooth?,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
- Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
- Campbell, John Y, 1987.
"Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November.
- John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1995.
"Evaluating Risky Consumption Paths: The Role of Intertemporal Substitutability,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1471-1486, August.
- Jim Dolmas, 1998. "Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 646-676, July.
- Otrok, Christopher, 2001.
"On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
- Chris Otrok, 1999. "On Measuring the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Virginia Economics Online Papers 318, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
- Christopher Otrok, 2000. "On Measuring the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1094, Econometric Society.
- Proietti, Tommaso, 1997. "Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 405-22, August.
- Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994.
"Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
4719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 187-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
- Pemberton, James, 1996. "Growth trends, cyclical fluctuations, and welfare with non-expected utility preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 387-392, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Thomas Tallarini, .
"Risk-Sensitive Real Business Cycles,"
GSIA Working Papers
1997-35, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Issler, João Victor & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho, 2003. "On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 481, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
- Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1984.
"Are Business Cycles All Alike?,"
NBER Working Papers
1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rodrigo Zadra Armond)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.