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Are Business Cycles All Alike In Europe?

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  • Márcio Antônio Salvato
  • João Victor Issler
  • Angelo Mont'alverne Duarte

Abstract

We investigate whether business cycles are all alike computing the welfare costs of business cycles for European-Union (EU) as the solution of the problem proposed by Lucas (1987). Because these countries have a long tradition of integration and trade, it is a "natural experiment" to investigate how similar their welfare costs of business cycles are. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed welfare costs using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods, but focusing on the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Our results show that welfare costs are very different across EU countries and between US and EU countries, and thus it is a strong evidence that business cycles are not alike in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Márcio Antônio Salvato & João Victor Issler & Angelo Mont'alverne Duarte, 2005. "Are Business Cycles All Alike In Europe?," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 031, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:031
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    Cited by:

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    2. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.
    3. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2012. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 734, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes & Leandro Gonçalves do Nascimento, 2004. "A Welfare Analysis Of Economic Fluctuations In South America," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 045, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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