IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union

  • Willie Lahari

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

Registered author(s):

    On-going debate of a Pacific Islands currency union has rekindled the argument on whether Pacific Island Countries (PICs) demonstrate symmetric behavior in their business cycles as a precondition for a union according to the OCA theory. Unfortunately for the PICs, there are no empirical studies undertaken involving the analysis of business cycle synchronization. This paper measures business cycles for PICs employing a number of techniques and using newly constructed quarterly GDP data by Lahari et al. (2011), including Australia and New Zealand, and evaluates their degree of synchronization. The results showed that it was not feasible for the PICs as a group to form a union. Although, further analysis showed mixed results for the Melanesian sub-group, the argument for a Melanesian union was based on similar positive directions in their business cycles. Further structural adjustments and policy harmonization are still required for all PICs including the Melanesian sub-group.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1110.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1110.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2011
    Date of revision: Oct 2011
    Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1110
    Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 56, Dunedin
    Phone: +64 3 479 8725
    Fax: 64 3 479 8171
    Web page: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econEmail:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Inklaar, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2001. "Is There Really a European Business Cycle? A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 215-20, April.
    2. Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
    8. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
    9. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
    10. Chen, Xiaoshan & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "Evaluating growth cycle synchronisation in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 342-351, March.
    11. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    13. Haug, Alfred A. & Dewald, William G., 2004. "Longer-term effects of monetary growth on real and nominal variables, major industrial countries, 1880-2001," Working Paper Series 0382, European Central Bank.
    14. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
    15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    16. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Working Papers 05_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    17. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
    19. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition with Markov Switching," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    20. Charles R. Nelson, 2006. "The Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition in Retrospect and Prospect," Working Papers UWEC-2007-30, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    21. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
    22. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    23. James Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2002. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    24. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
    25. repec:dgr:uvatin:20030031 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, 06.
    27. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. " Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-32, September.
    28. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    29. Victor Zarnowitz, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Ilse Mintz, 1974. "Dating United States Growth Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 1, Number 1, pages 1-113 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    32. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    33. S. Jules-Armand Tapsoba, 2009. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(2), pages 287-318, March.
    34. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 303-323, November.
    35. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Olaf Sleijpen, 2002. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 23-42, 03.
    36. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
    37. Willie Lahari & Alfred Haug & Arlene Garces-Ozanne, 2008. "Estimating quarterly GDP Data for the South Pacific Island Nations," Working Papers 0805, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2008.
    38. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    39. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Sectoral Trends and Cycles in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 502, CESifo Group Munich.
    40. Dr Peter Kenen, 2002. "Currency Unions and Trade: Variations on Themes by Rose and Persson," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    41. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2005. "Evidence for common features in G7 macroeconomic time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 165-175.
    42. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    43. Ulrich Woitek, 1998. "A Note on the Baxter-King Filter," Working Papers 9813, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    44. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 117-141, May.
    45. Mundell, Robert A, 1997. "Currency Areas, Common Currencies, and EMU," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 214-16, May.
    46. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
    47. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    48. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    49. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "Alternative definitions of the business cycle and their implications for business cycle models: A reply to Torben Mark Pederson," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1103-1107, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janet Bryant)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.