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Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition with Markov Switching

  • Chin Nam Low

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

  • Heather Anderson

    (Australia National University)

  • Ralph Snyder

    (Monash University)

In this paper, we consider the introduction of Markov-switching (MS) processes to both the permanent and transitory components of the Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition. This new class of MS models within the context of BN decomposition provides an alternative framework in the study of business cycle asymmetry. Our approach incorporates Markov switching into a BN decomposition formulated in a single source of error state-space form, allowing regime switches in the long-run multiplier as well as in the short-run parameters.

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Paper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp2006n14.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2006n14
Contact details of provider: Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
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  1. Andrew Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Signal extraction and the formulation of unobserved components models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 84-107.
  2. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  3. Shami, R.G. & Forbes, C.S., 2000. "A structural Time Series Model with Markov Switching," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  4. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low & Ralph Snyder, 2004. "Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge Nelson Decomposition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  5. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  7. Robert Breunig & Serinah Najarian & Adrian Pagan, 2003. "Specification Testing of Markov Switching Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 703-725, December.
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  9. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  10. James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Working Papers 0013, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  11. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  13. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, 02.
  14. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  15. Chen, Chao-Chun & Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2006. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of Markov-switching processes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 83-89, April.
  16. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
  17. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.
  18. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  19. Luginbuhl, Rob & de Vos, Aart, 1999. "Bayesian Analysis of an Unobserved-Component Time Series Model of GDP with Markov-Switching and Time-Varying Growths," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 456-65, October.
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