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Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Antolin-Diaz

    () (Department of Macroeconomic Research, Fulcrum Asset Management)

  • Thomas Drechsel

    () (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)
    Economics Department London School of Economics (LSE))

  • Ivan Petrella

    () (Bank of England
    Department of Economics, Mathematics and Statistics Birkbeck College
    Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

Abstract

Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that most of this slowdown occurred prior to the Great Recession. We show how to use the model to decompose changes in long-run growth into its underlying drivers. At low frequencies, a decline in the growth rate of labor productivity appears to be behind the recent slowdown in GDP growth for both the US and other advanced economies. When applied to real-time data, the proposed model is capable of detecting shifts in long-run growth in a timely and reliable manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 1604, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Jan 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Iseringhausen, 2018. "The Time-Varying Asymmetry Of Exchange Rate Returns: A Stochastic Volatility – Stochastic Skewness Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/944, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Alessio Moro, 2017. "The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data," Discussion Papers 1714, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2015. "Is potential output growth falling?," MPRA Paper 68278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Everaert, Gerdie & Iseringhausen, Martin, 2018. "Measuring the international dimension of output volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 20-39.
    5. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2017. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Working Papers 2017-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    6. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    7. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C, 2017. "Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes," CEPR Discussion Papers 12029, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Akos Valentinyi & Georg Duernecker, 2017. "Unbalanced Growth Slowdown," 2017 Meeting Papers 822, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. repec:kap:atlecj:v:45:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11293-017-9551-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jensen, Henrik & Petrella, Ivan & Ravn, S�ren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2017. "Leverage and Deepening Business Cycle Skewness," CEPR Discussion Papers 12239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Huang, Kaixing, 2016. "The postwar growth slowdown and the path of economic development," MPRA Paper 80988, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2017.
    13. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Bok, Brandyn & Caratelli, Daniele & Giannone, Domenico & Sbordone, Argia M. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    Keywords

    Long-run Growth; Business Cycles; Productivity; Dynamic Factor Models; Real-time Data;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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