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VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models

  • Domenico Giannone
  • Lucrezia Reichlin
  • Luca Sala

Equilibrium business cycle models have typically less shocks than variables. As pointed out by Altug, 1989 and Sargent, 1989, if variables are measured with error, this characteristic implies that the model solution for measured variables has a factor structure. This paper compares estimation performance for the impulse response coefficients based on a VAR approximation to this class of models and an estimation method that explicitly takes into account the restrictions implied by the factor structure. Bias and mean squared error for both factor based and VAR based estimates of impulse response functions are quanti?ed using, as data generating process, a calibrated standard equilibrium business cycle model. We show that, at short horizons, VAR estimates of impulse response functions are less accurate than factor estimates while the two methods perform similarly at medium and long run horizons.

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Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series ULB Institutional Repository with number 2013/10127.

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Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in: Journal of Econometrics (2006) v.132 n° 1,p.257-279
Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/10127
Contact details of provider: Postal: CP135, 50, avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 1050 Bruxelles
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